Bitcoin two scenarios for the current correction phase

2018年2月7日

Doing some brainstorming and observations on the historical bitcoin chart to figure out whats happening next...

It's the fourth time that bitcoin has a major bull run.
To get an idea what to expect now I check what happened the last times:

• Two times after a rally we had a long bear market before prices recovered to old highs. One time we had a major correction which was bought up more quickly.
  
• The breakout of the bear markets was after a block reward halving.
  
• When the monthly close price broke the previous bubble close top there was a bull run up.
  
• When the price broke out, it didnt fall below the breakout price again during the correction
  
• The price range of the correction was the same like the last 2-3 green monthly candles
  

My conclusion:
Option 1: We could be in a correction like after april 2013: btc would be bought back up and we see a new all time high within next months. For this option we would have to close a monthly candle above 14000 usd.

Option 2: We enter a major bear market in which we should not see prices below 1189 (previous bubble top) usd but might also not fall below 4000 (3 green monthly range). It is likely that this correction / consolidation is a large triangle because of the elliot wave "rule of alternation". In a longer bear market it should be good to accumulate btc again during an accumulation phase some months before the block reward halving in year 2020.


These are the two scenarios I am preparing for. So I dont get surprised by one or the other.

Whats your guess?

2018年2月8日

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For the weekly chart I would expect a triangle or abc

2018年2月12日

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breaking the neckline should start the B wave

2018年2月22日

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Seems like the target from the head and shoulders pattern was reached.

2018年3月24日

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Small update on my view: It seems like we have two trends on the weekly chart: The orange channel which seems not really sustainable and the red log downtrend resistance which seems also not really sustainable. So i dont really trust these.

On the downside the weekly bollinger is now at the horizontal support at 4600$, bitcoin has wicked below but barely closed a weekly candle below the bollinger, so expect massive support in this region in case of further downmove.

On the upside, we can still form a ABC correction with a C target of 11000-13000$ or draw the giant triangle.

Overall it seems there is not really a good risk reward for longterm trades on both sides which means we need more patience to see a pattern emerge or trade the lower timeframes and babysit positions.

2019年6月1日

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historical bull market fractals hl2, will it repeat?

2019年11月15日

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Seems like 14k remains the key level.

Comparing the bear vs recovery time of previous bear markets. Trying to keep an open mind for different outcomes