Here's an example how everything is looking completely upside down with FTX.
Forward Futures trading at 7% premiums while price marking down is unnatural behaviour.
Of course we can easily compare to Deribit Futures everything is looking completely destroyed as Premiums are marking severe discounts. But this is actually what I was expecting for months to happen.
A bottom can only be found if we have Futures trading in Backwardation as they are right now. However, I expect them to sustain this way maybe for a week or two to be legit.
If they normalize too quickly is a sign that there is too much bullishness in the system.
The fact that we have Binance and OKX perpetual swaps trading aggressive above spot prices is also another bearish sign as margin traders are positioning themselves long on leverage... what could go wrong?
Things are looking ugly right now and we have no clue what other side effects are yet to bleed into the market as this start affecting balance-sheet of lenders, FTX partners, and other big institutions that are exposed to the FTX nightmare.
Forward Futures trading at 7% premiums while price marking down is unnatural behaviour.
Of course we can easily compare to Deribit Futures everything is looking completely destroyed as Premiums are marking severe discounts. But this is actually what I was expecting for months to happen.
A bottom can only be found if we have Futures trading in Backwardation as they are right now. However, I expect them to sustain this way maybe for a week or two to be legit.
If they normalize too quickly is a sign that there is too much bullishness in the system.
The fact that we have Binance and OKX perpetual swaps trading aggressive above spot prices is also another bearish sign as margin traders are positioning themselves long on leverage... what could go wrong?
Things are looking ugly right now and we have no clue what other side effects are yet to bleed into the market as this start affecting balance-sheet of lenders, FTX partners, and other big institutions that are exposed to the FTX nightmare.
D7R
