比特币做多
Using Stock to Flow model 4 future BITCOIN PRICE PREDICTION
To predict Bitcoin’s fair future value using the stock-to-flow model I charted stock to flow median price on a halvening dates and used parallel price channel as a boundary.
The middle price is the "fair" price for that halvening period
Upper price is 200% increase that correspons to overshoot above "fair" price during the bubble phase.
The lower price corresponds to a 50% decrease from the "fair" price during the bear market after overshoot period ends.
By this model next "fair price" to be expected in a year (because of the price lag) is 120 000 USD, 60k is price for a bear market while 360k is FOMO phase, and while this price might look too large for a asset class that just started to be seen as an investment asset class, central banks monetary policy works in Bitcoins favour.
This (median) price would put Bitcoins marketcap above 2 Trillion Dollars. A huge sum by most standards, but since Corona virus crash more than 4 Trillion dollars found its way just into American economy, without ECB plan to flood the markets with even more free money (and the money printing machine still goes brrrrrrr).
This fact means that price of 120K could in fact be way larger because of the inflation. Although all of this might look "moonboyish" Bitcoin doesn't stop to amaze us for more than decade. Now It is not the matter of IF bitcoin makes, it already made it... but a question how far will it go.
The middle price is the "fair" price for that halvening period
Upper price is 200% increase that correspons to overshoot above "fair" price during the bubble phase.
The lower price corresponds to a 50% decrease from the "fair" price during the bear market after overshoot period ends.
By this model next "fair price" to be expected in a year (because of the price lag) is 120 000 USD, 60k is price for a bear market while 360k is FOMO phase, and while this price might look too large for a asset class that just started to be seen as an investment asset class, central banks monetary policy works in Bitcoins favour.
This (median) price would put Bitcoins marketcap above 2 Trillion Dollars. A huge sum by most standards, but since Corona virus crash more than 4 Trillion dollars found its way just into American economy, without ECB plan to flood the markets with even more free money (and the money printing machine still goes brrrrrrr).
This fact means that price of 120K could in fact be way larger because of the inflation. Although all of this might look "moonboyish" Bitcoin doesn't stop to amaze us for more than decade. Now It is not the matter of IF bitcoin makes, it already made it... but a question how far will it go.
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