Bitcoin is creating an even bigger symmetrical triangle atm. I personally think that this is an accumulation period before continuation to the upside and I believe a bear-case scenario is less likely. In the hourly chart, I can see a beautiful W pattern playing out which will be a trend reversal and bull pattern. The right support should be around 30k. HODLérs and institutional buying should make a great foundation below 30k which is why I believe we will continue the bull run within 1 week. My short-term bear case would be that we haven´t tested the 21 weekly MA since 14th September last year. In previous bull-runs, this MA was tested multiple times before the last euphoric expansion before the price crash. The breakouts of the triangle will give us a clear indication of price action in the coming 1-2 weeks, but don´t miss the train.
BTCUSD
BTCUSD
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Short update 3 weeks later. The w pattern played out exactly as predicted and BTC broke out to the upside. To me, Bitcoin is the purest of all supply/demand situations I´ve ever seen, and when we now have growing long-term demand from institutions, these scenarios will most likely continue to break out to the upside. I still expect us at some point to get a local top, where we correct around 30-40 %. A test to the 21 week moving average would be extremely healthy (but not comfortable), and we would get an even bigger base of institutions on board. This could happen in the 60´s, 70´s, or even above 100k, I don´t know. right now at 52k, the 21-week moving average is right above 28k, so it´s a BIG drop. I´m super bullish for this year, but semi-cautious short term