BTC Update 13032018 + Lesson on futures

G'day Cobbers,

It seems my posts are being hidden by tradeview for a breach in house rules, I guess my affiliate link is pushing the friendship a little too far, my bad. Who would of thought I would get censored after paying $60 buckaroos a month and spreading free education and trade ideas. Any way moving on.

After a little bullrun last night we had our what seems daily drop, it is looking very bearish on the higher time frame charts, weekly closed out red and the new week has continued on with said trend down. Daily we have a clear bear flag /pennant formed and while we are green as we approach the end of the structure, bear flags are bearish and generally break down, not always though, so keep watch. We may still have another push towards the top of the structure before tomorrow, If we can close green today it would be a positive move towards ending this run.

Now for a little education cobbers,

When we are looking at the shorts vs long contracts above, people tend to think that if the shorts are outnumbering the longs that it is a positive sign towards a bear run, not so. What people tend to not understand is that for a future contract to be made, you need a long and a short position on each side, so no matter how many contracts there are, there is always an equal amount of short vs longs, what changes os how many contacts (value) is held by each position. So when shorts outnumber longs by a large majority , it mean few people have all the contracts spread across their positions and the longs have less contracts per position/person. Think about that for a moment, the big money, the multi-million dollar positions are long but the masses with much smaller contracts vs position is short. In this situation who do you think s in the better position? Big players can manipulate this market, the got these large position sizes by smart trading. Also with so many short position open, it gives massive liquidity for a long bull run, especially when the masses are entrenched in theory bear position, ending u trapped and then selling when pain gets to much and adding to the liquidity for the bull run.

So be aware of this factor, as well as volume and price action. A good habit is to watch on three time frames, dependent on your trading style, you could trade 1 day, 1 hour and 15mins, treat your daily as the tide, hourly as the waves and the 15mins as the ripples. Daily gives you the main trend direction (tide), use the hourly to ride the waves for shorter term trading while riding the tide and the ripples to help your entry and exit positions.

Give me a follow and we can delve deeper into these ideas at another stage and please share and like.


Thanks for dropping by, hopefully you garner something valuable from my post, be it educational or an idea towards a trade of your own. Please share, like and comment and engage with me, I am here to help.

Trader, Chart analyst and all round larrikin. Reside in NQ Australia, surrounded by Crocodiles, snakes & giant spiders, not to mention the boxing Kangaroos and devilish Drop bears. It makes my job quite hazardous but strewth mate, I love it.

Very nice explanation. Thank you @TroyByrne
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