Bsoze

ok, Bitcoin Weekly , phases of Bubbles and some thoughts

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
Turns out that we have 2-3 weeks to stand still while BTC             smoothly goes down and touches to the weekly channel support around 3.600-3.700

So, I took a look at the Bitcoin             history, as we have time right?
It seems, the excitement about bitcoin             , has changed gear for the last 2 years. And if specifically talking, RSI , since the end of 2015 has been touching to 50 range and jumping back up and never dropping below 50.That is a sign of a more dynamic and aggressive market

But, previously it was not the case.
So, I decided to examine and tried to understand of this change's process, in our bubble's phase I to phase II.

(Don't get me wrong, this is a new born bubble, no way it is close to bust!!)

Tracking back in time the the date 2 November 2015 seems to be the date, where we have up geared to phase II. That seems to me so! But any objection is accepted.

There is huge green volume , not affecting the prices on weekly basis, but after that date, the momentum is increasing and slope of the price action starts to increase. For some time, second derivative for the price action is zero while after some time, second derivative starts to increase too.

Checking back to the mentioned date, it seems there 3 issues , that people are talking about that can effect bitcoin             ; I am not exactly sure what was the trigger but they are;

- Financial troubles in Greece
- Some kind of a Russian Financial Social Networking fraud event
- EU courts deciding that VAT tax is not applicable on bitcoin             ( this is my take )

There might be some of you, who were actually in the market at that times, I would appreciate any other possibility as well.It would be nice to identify a critical point of history of bitcoin             bubble.

Anyway, other that, it seems, we will have to wait at least 2-3 weeks more , while BTC             price slides down and RSI by the way touches 50 again.
I am expecting Head and shoulders pattern to form to be completed while BTC             price dropping to 3.600-3.700 area.

Probably , when we reach the bottom, the difference between Chineese exchange BTC             prices and other BTC             exchange price difference will not be there anymore. That will be a another clue , probably.

Thats all folks. Tell me what you think

Wish I had left some Game of Thrones not watched , don't know how to spend the time now




评论: Also it seems there is 25 Oct Mastercard getting into digital currency news
interesting, but 2-3 weeks?
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Bsoze ilia19
@ilia19, yeap,in the past it has been the same.It takes 2-3 or 4-5 bars ( on weekly charts) to cool down and RSI to touch down 50 level. For example on the correction of June there 2 long red bars and 3 bars that are indecisive. So, best is to not to be involved anything for sometime for me
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ilia19 Bsoze
@Bsoze, 2-3 weeks is not a specific time. Can still get plenty of news from China. Where's your previous post that on 2 September the bitcoin collapse? And what do you mean about 25 Oct and MasterCard?
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Bsoze ilia19
@ilia19, Dear ilia, previous examples of corrections took 4-5 weeks. we already have 1 week so far so , I assume there will be 2-3 weeks more. I don't care about the news, every possible news is priced in the price already thats what technical analysis all about. My previous post is stil there, I was expecting bitcoin to come down because of a possible head and shoulders pattern and it happened .

Look , on the 2 of November 2015 , there was an extraordinary week, where the volume spiked. After that day the market started to perform better, I tried to find out WHY this is so. So I checked the news before 2 November andone of the news is that Mastercard was joining into a cyrpto fund. These things are too many thoughts, you have every right to not to believe or even not to read
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ilia19 Bsoze
@Bsoze, i read, i like text with explain
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