Throughout Bitcoin's history it has had 11 Death Crosses (50DMA crossing under 200DMA), and 10 of those times price has retested the 200DMA within ~3 months (with 1 outlier).
Do you know what time it did NOT retest the 200DMA? You might have guessed it… this most recent death cross ☠️
The only outlier that price did not retest the 200DMA within ~3 months was in 2015, where it took nearly a year to retest.
In that time,
BTC ripped 200% just 75 days later, which marked the start of the PARABOLA.
This is why I have been so adamant with sticking to my base case for Bitcoin’s next move.
Is this time different? 🥸
Will it take nearly a year to retest the 200DMA?
An interesting observation I found was that if we take 90D from the most recent death cross, it brings us out to July 6th, which is right around when the 90-day pause of tariffs is lifted 🧐
Having said all that, if PA confidently breaks above and confirms previous ATH (~$110k), I will lean towards the 2015 outlier for the 200DMA retest, which would put us into late Q1 2026.
That would line up nicely with a suspected top of the cycle 🥲
Do you know what time it did NOT retest the 200DMA? You might have guessed it… this most recent death cross ☠️
The only outlier that price did not retest the 200DMA within ~3 months was in 2015, where it took nearly a year to retest.
In that time,
BTC ripped 200% just 75 days later, which marked the start of the PARABOLA.This is why I have been so adamant with sticking to my base case for Bitcoin’s next move.
Is this time different? 🥸
Will it take nearly a year to retest the 200DMA?
An interesting observation I found was that if we take 90D from the most recent death cross, it brings us out to July 6th, which is right around when the 90-day pause of tariffs is lifted 🧐
Having said all that, if PA confidently breaks above and confirms previous ATH (~$110k), I will lean towards the 2015 outlier for the 200DMA retest, which would put us into late Q1 2026.
That would line up nicely with a suspected top of the cycle 🥲
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