A potential case for ₿itcoin to re-test previous macro structure
On the chart are presented some of my current beliefs about where bitcoin is right now at a macro level. The idea gets invalidated if we close this week above the Median Line and we start to challenge some of the previous pivots (41k) that touched the median line several times from above before breaking lower.
Note: I don't have any Elliot Wave labelled on the chart but if it was to count the price action from the 2018 lows to the current ATH as 1 2 3, with the bias that now we are in the progress of developing the 4th wave, there are a couple of things to watch.
1. The guideline of alternation states that if wave two of an impulse is a sharp retracement, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. In this case, we have a sideways wave two so we should expect a sharp wave four.
2. The most probable zone for wave four to retrace is between 30% - 50%. In this case, the 38.2% Fibonacci level labelled with a grey line aligns roughly in the same zone with the other elements which provides us with a wider confluence zone.
Note: I don't have any Elliot Wave labelled on the chart but if it was to count the price action from the 2018 lows to the current ATH as 1 2 3, with the bias that now we are in the progress of developing the 4th wave, there are a couple of things to watch.
1. The guideline of alternation states that if wave two of an impulse is a sharp retracement, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. In this case, we have a sideways wave two so we should expect a sharp wave four.
2. The most probable zone for wave four to retrace is between 30% - 50%. In this case, the 38.2% Fibonacci level labelled with a grey line aligns roughly in the same zone with the other elements which provides us with a wider confluence zone.