Simple analysis of the last three cycle bottoms. Four-year-cycle theorists will tell you we're right on track for a big bull run to begin at the start of 2024.
Each of the last three bear market sell-offs has lasted approximately a year before bottoming out. Followed by a period of consolidation and a retest of the previous support/resistance. That's where we're at right now. If the pattern holds, we should expect to turn resistance back to support by the end of 2023, and begin a new bull run in early 2024.
If you're still betting on an >80% retracement from the top, I'm betting you're out of luck.
Each of the last three bear market sell-offs has lasted approximately a year before bottoming out. Followed by a period of consolidation and a retest of the previous support/resistance. That's where we're at right now. If the pattern holds, we should expect to turn resistance back to support by the end of 2023, and begin a new bull run in early 2024.
If you're still betting on an >80% retracement from the top, I'm betting you're out of luck.
评论:
Super bull. I was expecting a retest of prior S/R in the lower 30s, but that's extremely unlikely at this point. New ATH in Q1 is way ahead of expectations. Should be a fun year or so.
