Over the weekend, Bitcoin took off and broke above $27,666. Then, yesterday it reached a high of $28,452. However, Bitcoin failed to hold this level for an extended period and quickly faltered below the $28,000 price tag. What caught our attention is that Bitcoin fully retraced to the 50-day SMA, which successfully halted a buying spree. Furthermore, MACD and Stochastic started to reverse their direction to the upside, and DM+ and DM- performed a bullish crossover on the daily time frame. As a result, these developments leave us with a neutral outlook for the short-term/medium-term.
To support a bullish case (for the short-term/medium-term), we would like to see Bitcoin break above $28,500 and MACD and Stochastic continue rising on the daily chart. Conversely, to support a bearish thesis, we would like to see Bitcoin struggling to take hold of the $28,000 level and fall below $27,666; in addition to that, we would like to see DM+ and DM- start converging with MACD, Stochastic, and RSI reversing to the downside.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates the price retracement toward the 50-day SMA.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
To support a bullish case (for the short-term/medium-term), we would like to see Bitcoin break above $28,500 and MACD and Stochastic continue rising on the daily chart. Conversely, to support a bearish thesis, we would like to see Bitcoin struggling to take hold of the $28,000 level and fall below $27,666; in addition to that, we would like to see DM+ and DM- start converging with MACD, Stochastic, and RSI reversing to the downside.
Illustration 1.01
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
评论:
Bitcoin failed to defend the $28,000 mark and dropped below $27,000. This was accompanied by the reversal in RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily time frame, which is bearish. To further support a bearish case, we would like to see the price continue falling and eventually test the support at $25,800.
评论:
Bitcoin broke below $25,800. The next support level we are paying close attention to is at $25,270. If Bitcoin takes out this level, it will further bolster a bearish case.
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