Bitcoin failed once again, not game over yet, but looks bad now
已更新
The bulls had their chance yesterday to grap the opportunity that was in front of them to use the bull flag between 6800/6600 to push higher. Almost everything was textbook, Very good volume during the rally up and the volume was decreasing inside the flag as it should do inside a flag. Alts were looking very good as well, most showing bottom formations, mostly even because of the high volume at the lows and even higher during the moves up from the lows. Allot of signs that the market was planning to go up.
But we have all seen of course what happened, it failed almost completely. There was room towards 6550 to still remain strong, but even that was too much to ask from the bulls. All of this is simply a sign of weakness! From the highs i could see continues spoofing of sell orders on Bitfinex, all the way to the 6400 low and even the past few hours i am still seeing it. Problem with Spoofing is, it's very difficult to judge WHY they do it. Usually they do it push people into their buy or sell orders. But since they started doing it from the 6600/6700 down to 6400, it could be they just simply want to push the price down. For the ones who don't know what spoofing is, people putting in buy or sell walls to scare traders into panic selling or buying. But once a trader with courage buys/sells into those orders they disappear faster than you can blink your eyes. These things are very illegal in all the markets, expect in crypto since they are not regulated, so welcome to crypto. Whales have been doing this for year by the way. The past 24 hours, you keep seeing those sell walls of around 85 btc, those are fake ones. We also see them allot on Bitmex, it's usually best to ignore all of them because they produce different outcomes many times.
Back to TA, on the right, we see a very worrying picture, something i mentioned a few weeks ago. Look at the blue circles, where we can see the market is not even able to reach the resistance line of the triangle. This is a very weak and bad signs, this shows there are simply not enough buyers willing to get in and attack the resistance. After the drop from 7400 down i mentioned that it was a bad sign, but i was not sure if the triangle was the big on or the blue lines as you can see in the chart on the left. Since we made that drop yesterday, showing even more weakness, lowering that triangle even more, makes things even worse! Only positive note here, we can still make a higher low if the bulls are willing to buy again. So it's not game over yet for the bulls. But if we do break the current low around 6400, the support around has to hold around 6300. Below 6300 there are still some support levels, but i doubt if they will push the market back up. We need to see a trend of higher lows in this weak market, so a retest of 6100 will probably fail.
Having said this, based on those lower highs inside the triangle, we really have to assume, that if the 6000/6300 breaks, we will probably see a very big panic dumb. And no way to know how deep it can go. It will probably be a very fast, big and high volume dump. In my analysis from 21 Sept, i mentioned the 6800 level was THE level to break when we were still around the 6500. The 6800 has been a KEY level for many times now the past few months. Because of the facts i mentioned in the beginning, it looked really good before we broke the 6700 and the 6600. So i really thought there was a good chance to break that weakening pattern of lower high as you can see in the chart on the right.
For now it's sitting and waiting. Levels for the bulls to break are 6480/6500, the 6600 and the 6660 i kept mentioning yesterday and the 6700/6730 will probably be the last level for the bulls to break to start a rally into the 7K's and maybe even higher. If we can't get above the 6500 within a day or 2, chances will be very big that the bearish scenario will play out.
Previous analysis:
But we have all seen of course what happened, it failed almost completely. There was room towards 6550 to still remain strong, but even that was too much to ask from the bulls. All of this is simply a sign of weakness! From the highs i could see continues spoofing of sell orders on Bitfinex, all the way to the 6400 low and even the past few hours i am still seeing it. Problem with Spoofing is, it's very difficult to judge WHY they do it. Usually they do it push people into their buy or sell orders. But since they started doing it from the 6600/6700 down to 6400, it could be they just simply want to push the price down. For the ones who don't know what spoofing is, people putting in buy or sell walls to scare traders into panic selling or buying. But once a trader with courage buys/sells into those orders they disappear faster than you can blink your eyes. These things are very illegal in all the markets, expect in crypto since they are not regulated, so welcome to crypto. Whales have been doing this for year by the way. The past 24 hours, you keep seeing those sell walls of around 85 btc, those are fake ones. We also see them allot on Bitmex, it's usually best to ignore all of them because they produce different outcomes many times.
Back to TA, on the right, we see a very worrying picture, something i mentioned a few weeks ago. Look at the blue circles, where we can see the market is not even able to reach the resistance line of the triangle. This is a very weak and bad signs, this shows there are simply not enough buyers willing to get in and attack the resistance. After the drop from 7400 down i mentioned that it was a bad sign, but i was not sure if the triangle was the big on or the blue lines as you can see in the chart on the left. Since we made that drop yesterday, showing even more weakness, lowering that triangle even more, makes things even worse! Only positive note here, we can still make a higher low if the bulls are willing to buy again. So it's not game over yet for the bulls. But if we do break the current low around 6400, the support around has to hold around 6300. Below 6300 there are still some support levels, but i doubt if they will push the market back up. We need to see a trend of higher lows in this weak market, so a retest of 6100 will probably fail.
Having said this, based on those lower highs inside the triangle, we really have to assume, that if the 6000/6300 breaks, we will probably see a very big panic dumb. And no way to know how deep it can go. It will probably be a very fast, big and high volume dump. In my analysis from 21 Sept, i mentioned the 6800 level was THE level to break when we were still around the 6500. The 6800 has been a KEY level for many times now the past few months. Because of the facts i mentioned in the beginning, it looked really good before we broke the 6700 and the 6600. So i really thought there was a good chance to break that weakening pattern of lower high as you can see in the chart on the right.
For now it's sitting and waiting. Levels for the bulls to break are 6480/6500, the 6600 and the 6660 i kept mentioning yesterday and the 6700/6730 will probably be the last level for the bulls to break to start a rally into the 7K's and maybe even higher. If we can't get above the 6500 within a day or 2, chances will be very big that the bearish scenario will play out.
Previous analysis:
注释
The whole day long, without exception, the price is being controlled on Bitfinex. Continuously seeing those spoofing sell orders pop up around the 6400. I went away for a few hours, but before i left i saw an 85 btc sell order around 6405 and when i came back i saw the exact same 85 btc sell at 6404. Sometimes it changes to 130/90/85/80/77. Anyway, still can't say what the game plan is, they since we are still around the 6400, i would say their goal is NOT to push it down. I am used to spoofing on Bitfinex from earlier this year, but not the past few months. If you think you have the answer, please share.
Alts are slowly turning up, a view like XRP and ADA are make good jumps up again as well. Looks like that small down trend channel broke, but no volume move up yet. The levels to break for now is 6450 and 6500.
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So we had that small buy signal on the 6H candle and that small break out on the 1H, but so far the move up has been very lame and weak! So big chance we will see another test of support around 6410 or 6360. Could stay within this possible channel. It has the shape of a small inverse H&S as well, but then it needs to stay above the 6420ish. Because we don't see any fast moves with volume, it's more likely to become a big bear flag now. Really needs to show some strength. A move above 6500 would be a first step to fight off that bear flag. Alts in general are weak now as well, many showing bear flags. So bears are a bit in favor now.
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Now it looks like Bitfinex is pushing up again, all by itself. First push nobody followed, but they kept the pressure on. 6500is breaking, but needs a bit more to invalidate that bear flag, At least the candle need to close above it. Just 3 market buy order on Bitmex of 26 mil together. This is what i mean with pressure, were probably shorts closing, getting scared of the Bitfinex whales. Because a month ago, they pushed the price up from 6250 to above the 7K. 注释
Target of that first H&S is almost reached, but chance it's a bigger one, with target around 6600.注释
Alts are not really following yet, not as they normally do. Seems like nobody trusts this push up注释
A few examples, that alts are saying this move up is a fake move. They just did not move the last 50/80 points of bitcoin. This makes things confusing again. For Bitcoin the 6440 should be a support now, if that breaks, we might be testing the lows again注释
Wierd day today, XRP making another rally, BCH making a big squeeze out of nowhere and other alts were just simply dead all day. Bitcoin saw allot of resistance at the 6500/6550 level. But that is no big surprise, since we had quite the drop on Monday, we can't expect that it just simply moves up in a straight line. A break of 6500 was a first step, now it's up to the bulls to find support around 6450 or 6400/6380. This small H&S targets around 6440. For the bears, so far still only a lower high again. A break of 6300 would mean the lower high is confirmed
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Seems Bitcoin is moving quite stable now, so far they have made a higher low, but to confirm it they need to get above that previous high around 6530/40. If they can manage to do that, we will probably see a move towards the 6600/6660.注释
Interesting, i can see a real fight going on at Bitmex now, some whales fighting each other there with big buy and sell orders. But it has become clear once again, that these bears have infinite funds, at least it appears so. The only way they give up is when more exchanges follow (Bitstamp/Coinbase/Kraken, these 3 give the mark price at Bitmex). For the first time in a very long time i see a big buy order of 5/6 mil put in and staying there. On the other side (sell side) i see some big orders as well, but those 2 5 mil sell orders are fake spoof orders as usual again.
So this doesn't say allot, but probably tells us a decent move is ahead the coming hours. Depending of who will win this fight
newsbtc.com/2018/09/27/swiss-startup-raises-over-100-million-to-build-crypto-bank/
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Wrong link :)注释
Just an update on that Alt chart i posted 2 days ago. With BCH making that big pump, now LTC as well. In general many are still dead. 注释
So we got our answer, it was a real fight going on and as i mentioned, a decent move has happened. Bulls broke a very important resistance now, the 6660 and the 6730 only a little bit. But more important, they broke that trend line. Still no guarantee's of course but things starting to look more bullish again now. The higher low i mentioned earlier has been confirmed and a break of 6800/6850 would confirm that even more. I think if the 6800/6900 breaks we will probably see a rally the coming period. But the 7400 will probably be defended by the bears again. At the moment the bulls need to keep it above the 6650ish to create a good solid bull flag and need to push up again within a few hours. But strangely enough, the alts are not really following. Still no confidence there.
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Update:
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