Even though my first target was and still is 7500ish, i closed my short position at 8500 because i expected a move up towards the 9800/10.200. There i said upfront i would build up a big short position because i expected another wave down. My first 20% got in at 9850, but unfortunately there was hesitation at the 9800/9900 and i could see we would probably not go higher anymore and that's why i added another 20% at 9800 (again i called this upfront).
Now Bitcoin has been making a big as you can see in this picture. For new readers, please look up my older charts for more info. Now for the short term it's possible we could still go towards the 9400 before making another big drop down towards the 8300/8400. IF we get there, i expect it to hang around those levels and that it will probably make another big drop into the 7K levels. When we get to those levels, i expect an even bigger drop towards the 6K and most probably even towards the 4K levels.
The purple line you see, is the neckline of an i showed a week ago. It's not a textbook one, but what most people don't understand about TA, it's not about the patterns, indicators or whatever, TA is a story, the chart gives you a story and you must be able to read it. That's why i was convinced that big would fail!
For now, we are still moving sideways and slowly up, the 9250 is a heavy resistance, but even if we get above it, i expect it to stay below the 9400. If we get above the 9500, i will probably change my strategy a bit. BUT, my medium term outlook does not change!! If we get above the 9300 i will be adding to my short position, between the 9300 and 9400.
If we drop again, our biggest challenge is the 8700/8800 level (more important than the 8300/8400!! I said in an earlier update that we had to take out the 8750 level to drop even further. Now we have seen why.
He was probably just pushing buyers into buying his selling orders at higher prices
You guys remember i said once or twice, i just could not figure out why, that the trustee of MT. Gox made that announcement of the dumps he made and is planning to dump more. Now with the latest news about this, it became clear in a second. They are turning it into something positive Of course it's still not logical, but as this writer turns it into something possible, probably more people can look at it that way. They are actually blaming him for the crashes from the highs. While saying that, they actually explain why Bitcoin crashed and that if MT. Gox hack had never happened, therefore this lawyer would never have the extreme amounts of Bitcoin, therefore there would never be this selling force pushing the market into those big crashes the last few months. So giving the impression that Bitcoin's price should normally be much higher. It would be really sick if i am wright. i know and i also think it's a bit far fetched, but who knows in this manipulative crypto world
They are trying to force higher lows, each time we see those spikes up, that's not normal buying, that is forcing the market in a direction. Don't get fooled by these moves! If a big buyer wants to get in the market with a big position, he doesn't push it up like this, he buys it up slowly!
Anyway, having this said, it is very difficult to say where they can bring this, is it 9400? is it 9800 again? or maybe even much higher like 10.500 of 11.000. They managed to do it at the 9400 low, people who follow me know exactly what i was telling back than, even predicting a big rally (short covering) because i could see what they were planing there.
The pattern you see here below, is what they are trying to do, making higher lows. The chance we drop out of it, is still bigger, but if it does, i want to see a drop below the 9000 and eventually of course a break of the 8800. We are still in the big bear flag!!
I have to admit there are some similarities with the 9400 low a month ago, i am not ignoring that. But we are still in the big bear flag and the trend is still down. So there are some small bullish signs, but the more you zoom out, the more bearish the picture gets!
As you can see now, i clearly predicted before, the 8800/8700 was the level what really mattered, not the 8400 low where we just went straight through :)
Anyway, it does bother me that most people are bearish now, but the big bear flag is set! we dropped below it, ideally we test the 8700/8600 again from here and than make another 1000ish point drop :)
Normally there are 2 different kind of bottoms, when short covering happens (V shape bottom) or a double bottom, so it was almost certain we would drop below the 8600 there.
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I feel like a lot of money leaving the market at these levels would be hodlers slowly getting out after making big losses and just giving up. I am not sure if there would be as much panic selling as in the past as I don't think there is much new money that has entered.
Panic selling is not only for the little guy, even big players can do that. It's like all whales do everything right. I understand what you say, sounds logical.
But i think the real hodlers are also starting to shit their pants, things are looking worse than the last drop (look at the Alts) so i think we will go much lower than the 6K this time. But of course i could be wrong
That said, I personally bought at about 2k and things were heating up. I bought more up to about 6.5k and that's when things started to get real crazy. So there may be a lot of hodlers who bought in this range that panick when they first experience losing their original investments. I do hear a lot of people say, 'hey, its at 6k and I'm still up on my original investment'. Maybe we'll see a new wave of sellers.