Observing the Larger Trend of Bitcoin

From Begin (bottom cup 2015) to ATH and the range it defines.

评论:

Let me write a small description of how I analyze this chart. So first we determine the major uptrend, this was from the low in 2015 around 163 USD then took of and has been continuously going up with "minor" corrections till our ATH of 19910.
This bulltrend gets length of 1 timewise, 0 from origin and 1 at the ATH.
Now fibonacci works both in price and time, where in general 1.382 and 1.618 are important levels, at the 1.618 the bearish trend has lasted 61.8% of the bulltrend and that might be a sign of reversal. Now all these fibonacci retracements timewise create angles from the ATH, which act as resistance and the beartrend has to test these and break up.

The 45 degree price/time angle is a famous Gann Angle and shows a perfect balance between price increase over n units of time.
Breaking up from the 45 degree angle means that the trend is turning bullish, since this line is the equilibrium of the downtrend and above there are less than 50% bears.
This 45 degree angle is the one from the ATH through the 2 at the Bottom, or the half of the second square. To go long with high certainty one is looking for a breakout above the 1.886/2 downtrend line.

评论:

Update: Bitcoin made a very fast and big pump, lots of momentum thus. Before any real reversal takes place momentum has to make a plateau and this will certainly take a while now, so I would not short already.
The triangle outbreak puts target around 8200-8500 but we could see higher and retest of upper (highest) downtrend line around 8600-8700. Then expecting some dump again.