Okay Bitcoin, is it going to be 4200 or 5200? Part 7
已更新
What a sick move today, Saturday manipulation at it's best. This market is just so easy for these people when volume is low.
Anyway, there were a lot of things in favor for at least a test of the 4000/4050.
-The daily candle of yesterday was perfect, today's was good as well. But of course, just minutes before the daily close the price got pushed down. Coincidence?
-Alts were very good, they made good rallies yesterday, even though the jump start was a short squeeze.
-ETH', which is leading broke out and made a small bull flag above the big bull flag. It could almost not get any better than that
-Open Intrest was good as well.
-The bull flag of Bitcoin was eventually good as well, making that last drop to 3800ish as a final shake out, which happens more often in a bull flag.
- Volumes were good/decent with those last pushes up as well.
The only danger there was, which was the main reason why i posted that big bearish wedge in the first place (in my previous analysis), was because yesterday's rally of Bitcoin was a 100% short squeeze. This is usually a matter of time until it drops again if we don't see real follow through. That's why i said the next push up has to break the 4000ish, so we don't get that bearish wedge hanging above the market. Well we all saw what happened eventually, it did not even get above the 3950 and a typical Bart move (what i warned for as well), was thrown into the market and within a few minutes we dropped like 7%. You can take my word on it, the same people who made the Bart move yesterday from the 3600 to 3900, did the same with this drop.
So they bought things up yesterday, when being fully loaded with longs:
-They push through the stop zone
-Throwing in more buying power to keep the pressure on the stops
-When the bigger liquidations start, the market does all the work FOR' them. So they only have to wait for the price to come to their closing orders.
So all they have to do is close their longs again at the highs during high volume. And when the volume decreases they have to close the remaining positions with a policy. Selling, but not pushing the price down while doing that. When that part of the trade is done, they do the opposite and start to short the market. This last part is obvious in hindsight. There signs upfront, but with that last push up from 3840 to 3920, it looked like it was a normal move up. Up until that Bart move.
The worst thing of it all, more people start to recognize their patterns. One would think that is good, but actually we are helping them. Because as soon as we see them do it, if we start to sell or short it, we give them extra volume. There is actually no stopping them, unless we would all combine "our" volume and do the opposite of their game plan. So the only way to stop it, is having more volume than "they" do. The only time i saw them loose, was in July, just before the break of the 6800. I have mentioned this many times before, but just saying it again for any new readers.
Okay, back to the charts :) It seems the big wedge i had drawn in the previous analysis, did it's work and we are back at an important support level around 3700. Because of this drop it is likely we will see another drop, seeing movement like we had in the blue circle. Since alts are stronger than Bitcoin', it could be my theory above is quite real. When looking at the OI profile, it could be their already loading up here. A first small step would be the price getting above the 3770ish. If that happens, there is a chance we won't make that second drop, which usually happens after a dump like we had a few hours ago.
For now the 3820/40 is a resistance level. As i am writing this, we can already see sell spoofing orders, trying to push prices into their longs (probably). For the rest, you can see all the support and resistances zones. If we drop below yesterday's low, i need to re evaluate things, because that would not fit in my bigger picture. If bull are able to touch the 4200ish the coming days, the chances will be very big for another rally. Because even if it drops to like 3900/4000 after reaching 4200, it will most likely form a higher low in that area. For the rest, keep an eye on the alts, if they get weak, the market will probably drop, if they remain strong, we will probably go up. They have been a great guide lately, except for today of course :).
I will try to update tomorrow again.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Anyway, there were a lot of things in favor for at least a test of the 4000/4050.
-The daily candle of yesterday was perfect, today's was good as well. But of course, just minutes before the daily close the price got pushed down. Coincidence?
-Alts were very good, they made good rallies yesterday, even though the jump start was a short squeeze.
-ETH', which is leading broke out and made a small bull flag above the big bull flag. It could almost not get any better than that
-Open Intrest was good as well.
-The bull flag of Bitcoin was eventually good as well, making that last drop to 3800ish as a final shake out, which happens more often in a bull flag.
- Volumes were good/decent with those last pushes up as well.
The only danger there was, which was the main reason why i posted that big bearish wedge in the first place (in my previous analysis), was because yesterday's rally of Bitcoin was a 100% short squeeze. This is usually a matter of time until it drops again if we don't see real follow through. That's why i said the next push up has to break the 4000ish, so we don't get that bearish wedge hanging above the market. Well we all saw what happened eventually, it did not even get above the 3950 and a typical Bart move (what i warned for as well), was thrown into the market and within a few minutes we dropped like 7%. You can take my word on it, the same people who made the Bart move yesterday from the 3600 to 3900, did the same with this drop.
So they bought things up yesterday, when being fully loaded with longs:
-They push through the stop zone
-Throwing in more buying power to keep the pressure on the stops
-When the bigger liquidations start, the market does all the work FOR' them. So they only have to wait for the price to come to their closing orders.
So all they have to do is close their longs again at the highs during high volume. And when the volume decreases they have to close the remaining positions with a policy. Selling, but not pushing the price down while doing that. When that part of the trade is done, they do the opposite and start to short the market. This last part is obvious in hindsight. There signs upfront, but with that last push up from 3840 to 3920, it looked like it was a normal move up. Up until that Bart move.
The worst thing of it all, more people start to recognize their patterns. One would think that is good, but actually we are helping them. Because as soon as we see them do it, if we start to sell or short it, we give them extra volume. There is actually no stopping them, unless we would all combine "our" volume and do the opposite of their game plan. So the only way to stop it, is having more volume than "they" do. The only time i saw them loose, was in July, just before the break of the 6800. I have mentioned this many times before, but just saying it again for any new readers.
Okay, back to the charts :) It seems the big wedge i had drawn in the previous analysis, did it's work and we are back at an important support level around 3700. Because of this drop it is likely we will see another drop, seeing movement like we had in the blue circle. Since alts are stronger than Bitcoin', it could be my theory above is quite real. When looking at the OI profile, it could be their already loading up here. A first small step would be the price getting above the 3770ish. If that happens, there is a chance we won't make that second drop, which usually happens after a dump like we had a few hours ago.
For now the 3820/40 is a resistance level. As i am writing this, we can already see sell spoofing orders, trying to push prices into their longs (probably). For the rest, you can see all the support and resistances zones. If we drop below yesterday's low, i need to re evaluate things, because that would not fit in my bigger picture. If bull are able to touch the 4200ish the coming days, the chances will be very big for another rally. Because even if it drops to like 3900/4000 after reaching 4200, it will most likely form a higher low in that area. For the rest, keep an eye on the alts, if they get weak, the market will probably drop, if they remain strong, we will probably go up. They have been a great guide lately, except for today of course :).
I will try to update tomorrow again.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
注释
One of my last updates warning for that Bart move:Now even if we move up, what we clearly DON'T want to see is, a small rally below the 4000ish. If can stall there and make a small bull flag, but we really need to break it, otherwise the chances will be very big for a big bearish wedge. So we dont want to see any of those Bart move rejections at the high.
注释
A realistic possibility as well (blue circle). Also the current shape does not look like a normal bear flag. The bounce from the low seems to be too big already. But it would be safer to say that if we get above the 3780/70注释
My first thought after seeing the price movement with all the spikes, was that we have seen this crap many times before. This usually turns out into a triangle movement. I just don't hope it becomes like we saw in the 6K zone. Where we would see a breakout of the triangle, but instead of getting follow through, we would simply form a bigger triangle and move sideways even longer. Maybe we see this crappy price action, because some people want to keep it inside a range for the holiday's? It's not difficult with this low volume.
注释
As i mentioned, still a waste of time with this low volume. Made a drop, with a bear flag that is already invalidated. You can see the bots in action again from the low. I have to say, i am happy with this, so we can enjoy our New Year :)注释
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I will respond to some comments tomorrow. But i want to thank you guys, i read some very nice comments. It really means a lot, very motivating. Thank you :)注释
Seems they are spoofing once again on Bitmex with big sell orders. They run away like little B's as soon as the price goes up. After each push up stops and slows down, they put their sell orders in again, up until the someone is courageous enough to buy in to their orders. For the ones who are not aware, spoofing is illegal in all the financial markets, except crypto of course. The crypto market embraces thief's and all other type of financial/digital criminals. Don't get me wrong, i am absolutely not happy about it, just stating some facts.
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