The "Bearish" Case For Bitcoin

As an alternative to my last post, The Bullish Case For Bitcoin, if thing's don't go well, we could see as low 3.5k and as long as 05/2019 before it stays firmly above 10k. When we take a look at the even larger picture of bitcoins price action, namely through Bitstamp , we see its possible that bitcoin has a consistent channel it may run in, that we are still far above. This still means Bitcoin has exponential price growth, as we're looking at a channel on a logarithmic scale, so it's a bit weird to call it a "Bearish" scenario, but over the past few months, just as back in 2013-2014 Bitcoin has just been so overbought and extended that everyone perspective has been skewed, and we may still be in for and month or two of selling being things return to "the norm."

Here's a look at the channel I'm proposing during a period when Bitcoin seemed relatively stable.


And believe it or not, as the RSI here shows, we are still not oversold in the grand scheme of things.

However, on a personal/fundamental note, I dont think 3.5k or 10k till 05/2019 is really likely as the market and crypto ecosystem as a whole is in an entirely different place than it's ever been before. It's mainstream now, it's proven, and there are so many projects involved in it, yet it's only the start. Not only that, but it's suspected that the post-December crash was at least in part fueled by one of the Mt. Gox trustees dumping almost half a billion USD worth of BTC , and yet the market seemed to absorb it fairly well considering the volume .

In my opinion, Bitcoin WILL die, at least in relation to its former self, but not until there is a way to buy every major altcoin with fiat. Take a minute and think of how weird this market setup it, there has never been anything like it in the history of markets or humanity. There are almost two separate markets, the one(s) that deal in fiat, and the one that deals in cryptocurrencies. But there's a fundamental difference, you can invest in Oil , or Apple , a Hedge fund, or namely Bitcoin with a variety of options, USD, EUR, JPY, etc. But what are you, and moreover the average person who really only knows Coinbase or at "best" Bitfinex, going to use to buy Ark? Or XLM? or a hundred other options? Bitcoin . Yes, I realize that many altcoins are finally getting fiat pairings on semi-major exchanges, but not even close to all, and many of those markets pale in comparison to their BTC counterpart still.

Here's a thought experiment. Every person in the world who owned BTC sold within the same hour, but they only sold/bought altcoins with them. What would this do to the USD price of BTC? Directly, it would do literally nothing. A sell-off like nothing we've ever seen would surely follow, but as a direct result of that selling, BTC's USD value wouldn't move. This is why you don't generally trade Gold for stocks for example, or any commodity directly for another, and I believe it is only the transition to that model that will see BTC die.

As always, share you're thoughts on any of this below!
评论: To get a closer look at our current price movement, see my zoomed-in post,
评论: STILL NOT OVERSOLD! Remember that! However, we are looking to be finding a bottom, and the true bull run is right around the corner
评论: So far this has played out PERFECTLY
Well done ! Thanks for your precious work sir.
Good charting
+2 回复
kdenery TheCryptAlpha
@TheCryptAlpha, Thanks man
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