比特币

BTCUSD Analysis : Channel Break + QFL Setup | Structure Analysis

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📊 Chart Overview
This 2H BTCUSD chart reveals a comprehensive view of market behavior transitioning from a phase of consolidation into a potential breakout or further rejection. The price action is analyzed inside a parallel channel, transitioning into a curved resistance path, which is currently governing the market structure.

🔵 Phase 1: Consolidation Inside a Straight Channel

Price has respected a clear ascending channel (highlighted in blue) from July 16 to July 24.

This phase shows a range-bound movement with defined supply and demand zones.

Labelled as “Straight Channel or Consolidation”, this represents a potential accumulation/distribution zone.

The Channel Previous Supply Interchange marks an important S/R flip zone, now serving as a key reference for future reactions.

🔻 Phase 2: Break of Structure & Curved Resistance
Price broke down below the channel support and is now respecting a downward curved trendline.

This indicates a shift in momentum from neutral to bearish, forming lower highs.

A sharp drop occurred post-channel exit, marking a QFL (Quasimodo Failure Level) area—hinting at smart money involvement or liquidation hunt.

🔁 Reversal Scenarios & Key Levels
There are two possible future paths visualized:

🟥 Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation
Price respects the curved trendline, failing to break resistance.

A rejection near the current region (~117.5k) could lead price back toward:

Central Zone Reversal near 115,000 USD

Further into the 100% Reversal Zone (green zone) near 113,500–114,000 USD

Ideal for short entries after clear rejection confirmations.

🟩 Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout
Price breaks and sustains above the curved resistance.

Temporary resistance seen at Minor level (~120,000 USD), followed by Major resistance near 121,000 USD.

This scenario requires bullish volume and reclaim of structure, invalidating the short bias.

🧠 Strategic Viewpoint & Trade Mindset
Market is at a decision point—either confirming a bearish rejection from dynamic resistance or invalidating it for a bullish reversal.

Patience is key; wait for either:

A failed breakout attempt (short opportunity), or

A confirmed breakout and retest (long opportunity).

Use lower timeframes (15m–1h) for execution once direction is confirmed.

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