Don't get trapped, be smart. In the latest days I have seen so many switching their views on Bitcoins direction. "A new entity has taken over" I read from some trader for example.
Bitcoin is a market that behaves after supply and demand like the rest. I will be shocked if we see more demand than supply over the next 10 days.
Fundamental
With big news such as the CME announcment and the upcoming "free coins" on fork date, I see many have this mindset that this time its different.
It never is. This does seem like a perfect place to buy, breaking 7600 high and you get two coins in 8 days!
That's why I am selling, it is the definitly the smart thing to do.
We are in a bubble and when there is a contagious hard fork coming up, you aint gonna get "free" money on the fork. Those coins combined will be worth less then now. And god forbid 2X puts up a real fight, it can get ugly fast.
However, shorting BTC is not the best play you can do before fork. Going long on alternative coins, with margin, against BTC, is the best you can do. In the upcoming days I will be putting out some ideas and explain why.
Technical
We are in the 5th wave, and while it's always possible to go higher, I believe it will end soon.
In case it's not, I am having stops above 8200 USD.
First target I am looking for is the 0.618 FIB, which is around 5200 USD. That should be reached easy.
Second target is between the 0.5 & 0.382. With an eye out for the trendline which will be around 4200 USD. But it could go as low as 3500 USD, depending on how the fork goes and how much panic we will encounter.
Numbers
Bitcoin is a market that behaves after supply and demand like the rest. I will be shocked if we see more demand than supply over the next 10 days.
Fundamental
With big news such as the CME announcment and the upcoming "free coins" on fork date, I see many have this mindset that this time its different.
It never is. This does seem like a perfect place to buy, breaking 7600 high and you get two coins in 8 days!
That's why I am selling, it is the definitly the smart thing to do.
We are in a bubble and when there is a contagious hard fork coming up, you aint gonna get "free" money on the fork. Those coins combined will be worth less then now. And god forbid 2X puts up a real fight, it can get ugly fast.
However, shorting BTC is not the best play you can do before fork. Going long on alternative coins, with margin, against BTC, is the best you can do. In the upcoming days I will be putting out some ideas and explain why.
Technical
We are in the 5th wave, and while it's always possible to go higher, I believe it will end soon.
In case it's not, I am having stops above 8200 USD.
First target I am looking for is the 0.618 FIB, which is around 5200 USD. That should be reached easy.
Second target is between the 0.5 & 0.382. With an eye out for the trendline which will be around 4200 USD. But it could go as low as 3500 USD, depending on how the fork goes and how much panic we will encounter.
Numbers
- Short: 7800
- Close Short: 5200
- Buy: 3600
评论:
2X plans suspended, that was the reason for pump.
Wonderful timing on my side, writing this analysis so I missed the news.
But no more free coins, so we will dump anyways. This is a bubble, it will pop.
Wonderful timing on my side, writing this analysis so I missed the news.
But no more free coins, so we will dump anyways. This is a bubble, it will pop.
评论:
The top is in. I have shorted the top, which is the greatest feeling in the world :)
Trend line got messed up, the text and a point. But whatever, I dont have the time right now to make a new one. Too much market activity atm.