I've sensed some weakness in the BTC market for a while now and I've been trying to make sense of what could happen over the next few months to a year.
Originally, I thought BTC would go much lower (sub $20k), however, looking at the bigger picture and the ichimoku cloud, I don't think it's a strong possibility anymore.
I still don't think we see $100k BTC this year though, but I think it's likely next year. What makes the most sense to me is to trap bulls here at the end of Q4 and make everyone think that BTC bull run is over. Then rally early next year into the end of it. The scenario would be similar to what happened in 2017 with weakness through the first quarter of the year, and then a massive run afterwards.
We just got a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly which makes me think further downside is coming in the near term.
Now this is my base case: that we see weakness in
BTC through Q1 of next year w/ a correction down to $39k, (or at lowest $34k on a capitulation around or before March/April timeframe), and then a massive rally through the end of 2022 w/ BTC reaching a final target of $112k and potential blowoff levels above that ($136k or $149k).
Let's see how it plays out.
Originally, I thought BTC would go much lower (sub $20k), however, looking at the bigger picture and the ichimoku cloud, I don't think it's a strong possibility anymore.
I still don't think we see $100k BTC this year though, but I think it's likely next year. What makes the most sense to me is to trap bulls here at the end of Q4 and make everyone think that BTC bull run is over. Then rally early next year into the end of it. The scenario would be similar to what happened in 2017 with weakness through the first quarter of the year, and then a massive run afterwards.
We just got a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly which makes me think further downside is coming in the near term.
Now this is my base case: that we see weakness in
BTC through Q1 of next year w/ a correction down to $39k, (or at lowest $34k on a capitulation around or before March/April timeframe), and then a massive rally through the end of 2022 w/ BTC reaching a final target of $112k and potential blowoff levels above that ($136k or $149k).Let's see how it plays out.
注释
Still think we go to $34k-39k, but don't think we go to $100k afterwards, I lean bearish from here.
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