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BTC Long Hypothesis...Why not?

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BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
The picture tells the story...

Why?
We had a parabolic run, then we will naturally see a sell off at the top.
Prices drop back to the support zone where it all started from, the parabolic run.
Accumulation and the cycle starts all over again.

Current possibilities to match the above hypothesis
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more likely... we need a drop to the demand zone to give it that momentum
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I see this area critical for a number of reasons. I will post the details in the next post and what we need to confirm bullish or bearish and what is at stake.
Here is the basic chart as to what we are looking at. Note the critical line in the channel and the sloping support.
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previous bear trend channel matches current bear trend channel. Note, the red shaded area signifies 100% to 200%, meaning region of trend change. One can not how trend changed in 2017/18 and I expect the same in the 7500 to 8700 range.
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