Could Bitcoin, Gold and Dollar index crash the DJI?
已更新
This is a busy chart with four instruments on it. But do take a careful look at what's going on.
I see the DXY (Dollar Index) heading south. Mainly from Sept 2020, Bitcoin has been benefiting from price advantage by what seems to be an increasing negative correlation.
(The DXY is a good index to get a feel of US Dollar strength because it checks the USD against a handful of other currencies - and heavily against the Euro).
From Nov 2020, Gold which was somewhat neglected for a couple months began moving north as the DXY continued its slide south.
But from Nov 2020, the DJI has been only on a slow burn up - still benefiting from a weak US Dollar Index.
The ridiculous levels of QE by the FED and its 15 tools. It's actually been labelled as 'QE Infinity' and Jay Powell has said 'whatever it takes'. All that will have weakened the relative value of the USD. That's easily spotted in currency pairs like USDCAD, USDSEK, USDJPY and so on.
Now - the problem is that the DJI and S&P500 are quite overvalued relative to real projected earnings potential over the next year. Don't take my word for it. Get on to reputable sources. It is well known that stock indices tend to benefit from weak country currencies. So yes the US indices have been benefiting, but not that well.
If your USD is heading down the tubes, what do you do? Basically you try to protect value by latching on to something else. Metals have been seen as the safe haven after the last couple months. So Platinum, Silver and Copper have been benefiting - more than Gold. Would you be inclined to put money in stocks? Sure - some people will. But the big boys know the trouble with stocks - they're just not saying much about it.
What does the rise of metals and Bitcoin from November mean? I can't know for sure. I suspect that it means money is moving out of stocks into those by those with the big money - who are expecting trouble ahead. Governments and central banks hold much influence over the value of money. But with metals and Bitcoin, the market truly decides. Yes - it is crazy that big money will flow into Bitcoin seen as made from thin air (and BTW so is fiat money).
Overall I think it's a bad weather sign when metals and Bitcoin are heading north (from November). Some will recall that there was talk about banning Bitcoin a few weeks ago when it was seen as a threat to fiat currencies. The story came and went quickly - but it's a space to watch. That the authorities would consider that at all, is also a sign of trouble.
If money increasingly flows into metals and Bitcoin, less may flow into Bonds and stocks.
This post is speculative. I'm not saying I am right. If others know more, do share your knowledge.
I see the DXY (Dollar Index) heading south. Mainly from Sept 2020, Bitcoin has been benefiting from price advantage by what seems to be an increasing negative correlation.
(The DXY is a good index to get a feel of US Dollar strength because it checks the USD against a handful of other currencies - and heavily against the Euro).
From Nov 2020, Gold which was somewhat neglected for a couple months began moving north as the DXY continued its slide south.
But from Nov 2020, the DJI has been only on a slow burn up - still benefiting from a weak US Dollar Index.
The ridiculous levels of QE by the FED and its 15 tools. It's actually been labelled as 'QE Infinity' and Jay Powell has said 'whatever it takes'. All that will have weakened the relative value of the USD. That's easily spotted in currency pairs like USDCAD, USDSEK, USDJPY and so on.
Now - the problem is that the DJI and S&P500 are quite overvalued relative to real projected earnings potential over the next year. Don't take my word for it. Get on to reputable sources. It is well known that stock indices tend to benefit from weak country currencies. So yes the US indices have been benefiting, but not that well.
If your USD is heading down the tubes, what do you do? Basically you try to protect value by latching on to something else. Metals have been seen as the safe haven after the last couple months. So Platinum, Silver and Copper have been benefiting - more than Gold. Would you be inclined to put money in stocks? Sure - some people will. But the big boys know the trouble with stocks - they're just not saying much about it.
What does the rise of metals and Bitcoin from November mean? I can't know for sure. I suspect that it means money is moving out of stocks into those by those with the big money - who are expecting trouble ahead. Governments and central banks hold much influence over the value of money. But with metals and Bitcoin, the market truly decides. Yes - it is crazy that big money will flow into Bitcoin seen as made from thin air (and BTW so is fiat money).
Overall I think it's a bad weather sign when metals and Bitcoin are heading north (from November). Some will recall that there was talk about banning Bitcoin a few weeks ago when it was seen as a threat to fiat currencies. The story came and went quickly - but it's a space to watch. That the authorities would consider that at all, is also a sign of trouble.
If money increasingly flows into metals and Bitcoin, less may flow into Bonds and stocks.
This post is speculative. I'm not saying I am right. If others know more, do share your knowledge.
注释
Someone in the background has asked, "Why is everyone making a drama about the DXY crashing, we can see it is, we knew it would, even during its period of strength beginning of year and last, what is so different from 2011, was there this much drama then from analysts & commentators?" I just love that very nice question.My answer which may be totally wrong is:
The drama is about what the world's first reserve currency (USD) which is the 'liquid gold' that substituted (allegedly) for real gold after the Gold Standard was abolished history.com/this-day-in-history/fdr-takes-united-states-off-gold-standard - the intended effect of this took the next 30 years to bed in.
So now it appears to me that the panic about the demise of the 'liquid gold' - due to panic stricken QE infinity - has led hedgers and investors to jump onto metals and the 'new gold' which seems to be Bitcoin.
Now it appears obvious in hindsight because Bitcoin is less buffeted by stockmarket and Bond market activity. Nothing is absolute of course, in a chaotic non-linear environment.
On Friday at close of the US stock markets, strange things happened (not cause and effect): DXY took a deep dive, whilst DJI took an amazing leap of 300 points (-ish). As I say not cause and effect - one ought not to analyse any of this in a linear (causal) way, when dealing with a non-linear environment.
See also my latest deeper digging:
FED balance sheet 42% of GDP @ 2020-01-26. Does money have value anymore? [Different perspective on the virus youtu.be/NjTdvALChwk ]
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