akyong

More Downside Potential Trading The Dollar Out of NFP

TVC:DXY   美元指数
For the first week of the month, we traders will always be focusing on the US Dollar             (USD) simply because we have one of the most important news event on the first Friday of the month – the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP).

This economic data measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

It is one of the most important news event in the Forex market because job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

If the data released on Friday is significantly better than the expected numbers, it will indicate an improvement in the economy, which usually cause the strengthening of the US Dollar             . On the other hand, if the data released is significantly worse than the expected numbers, it will indicate that the economy is slowing down, which usually translate to the US Dollar             to weaken.

Based on our analysis on the US Dollar Index             ( DXY             ), we see limited upside on the US Dollar             , and we are expecting more downside potential trading out of this risk event.

Since the start of 2017, the US Dollar             has been falling from the high at 103.84 to the recent low in September at 91.01.

The fall in US Dollar             seems to have completed a larger degree 3rd wave, and is now in a 4th wave correction towards 94.05 to 95.91 area.

According to Elliott Wave Principle, a complete cycle comprises a 5-wave             structure, followed by a 3-wave             structure.

Thus we are still expecting one last wave down (5th wave) to complete the overall cycle on the US Dollar             .

This Friday’s NFP data will provide us the more ‘clues’ as to where the US Dollar             will likely be heading for the remaining of 2017.
Good evening!The 4th correction towards 94.05 to 95.91 are.So "we" can have chance to buy now until it will reach the correction,right?
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akyong gtomi001
@gtomi001, it really depends on your trading plan, whether you are shorter term trader or a longer term trader.

But you are right that there is the opportunity there :)
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