S&P: Next Week's Expected Move: $90 (Huge)
已更新
The Options Market's depiction of non-directional volatility next week.
Increase from $66 last week to $90 this coming week.
I enjoy this week-by-week update, now on Week #3. I think I'll likely continue this series. Hope you all enjoy it as well.
Last week's game plan worked well, pinging from value area to value area. One Gravity Point to the next.
For what it's worth, Gravity Points are absolutely in play right now.
I do a huge amount of regression analysis in order to decipher these Gravity Points. They're all for the purpose of determining efficiency in the marketplace. They're determined by looking at order flow in the market. These levels are major trading firms, and where they have a large amount of concentric risk.
*Gravity Points are used in concert with the Expected Move for the week.
There is more downside in this market. Volatility is laughing in our face, not even getting into a 3-handle. A $24 VIX is only barely 1 standard deviation outside of its historical norm. 30-35 is that 2 standard deviation move that we need to see.
Implied Volatility IV for SPX options are only at roughly 26%; we need to see IV in the 32-37% range for an oversold contrarian rally. The S&P is laughing in your face saying you haven't seen nothing yet. KEEP YOUR HELMET ON.
The markets are still too efficient. If the market's are so "Unprecedented" in terms of volatility, so "Horrific" right now, then how can a monkey like me pick out, within 1 point, the level a twenty six hundred dollar product was going to bounce from?
By the way I didn't pick these levels out yesterday, or last week. I picked them out months ago, back in Mid-March.
The options market Expected Move was breached the previous week. We had a $66 expected move and we went over that. It's the 5th week this year that the options market got it wrong.
The technicals are running the show and will be our only roadmap in navigating these choppy waters.
Good Luck Next Week Gentlemen,
-RH
Increase from $66 last week to $90 this coming week.
I enjoy this week-by-week update, now on Week #3. I think I'll likely continue this series. Hope you all enjoy it as well.
Last week's game plan worked well, pinging from value area to value area. One Gravity Point to the next.
For what it's worth, Gravity Points are absolutely in play right now.
I do a huge amount of regression analysis in order to decipher these Gravity Points. They're all for the purpose of determining efficiency in the marketplace. They're determined by looking at order flow in the market. These levels are major trading firms, and where they have a large amount of concentric risk.
*Gravity Points are used in concert with the Expected Move for the week.
There is more downside in this market. Volatility is laughing in our face, not even getting into a 3-handle. A $24 VIX is only barely 1 standard deviation outside of its historical norm. 30-35 is that 2 standard deviation move that we need to see.
Implied Volatility IV for SPX options are only at roughly 26%; we need to see IV in the 32-37% range for an oversold contrarian rally. The S&P is laughing in your face saying you haven't seen nothing yet. KEEP YOUR HELMET ON.
The markets are still too efficient. If the market's are so "Unprecedented" in terms of volatility, so "Horrific" right now, then how can a monkey like me pick out, within 1 point, the level a twenty six hundred dollar product was going to bounce from?
By the way I didn't pick these levels out yesterday, or last week. I picked them out months ago, back in Mid-March.
The options market Expected Move was breached the previous week. We had a $66 expected move and we went over that. It's the 5th week this year that the options market got it wrong.
The technicals are running the show and will be our only roadmap in navigating these choppy waters.
Good Luck Next Week Gentlemen,
-RH
评论
Week #2
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Week #1
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Any of you brave souls buy when we went into the green zone?Wild ride.
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Running into a gravity point, taking some off here.评论
Just an enormous range this week. We reached this week's Expected Move, took 100% off. 50% at Gravity point. Happy Trading.
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