ES_F Week Recap. Is there more upside?

2023年1月28日

Review: This weeks agenda was short covering, market got too short under 3930 and we used the covering do drive us higher to our bigger supply areas where we can find more selling. We have successfully arrived at our next bigger time frame supply level. Wasn't an easy week to trade as they didn't make this move up as fun for everyone but levels held nicely and targets were reached. Last few data releases were different than what we are used to and trades take longer to set up so extra patience is required. End of day today we used the short stops that we built second half of the day to unload our inventory and run it up over 4103 where we found more sellers from where we dropped the bid end of day. The way we closed at first seemed bad for the longs in a way that we have trapped inventory over 4084 and that was that, after review it makes me think that possibly we just found supply and dropped our bid to cover lower but I think there is still some more covering to do up here. Doesn't seem like we are ready to reverse just yet..

Overview: Coming week has lots of data so it wont be an easy one, best to take it day by day and let the market show us what we are doing. Sunday Globex will have to show us the next set up... our potential support is under 4084-77, our position end of day was in that area as well. Monday is no news/data day which means less volume and after todays end of day drop we might have less bullish traders in globex so they can buy it back cheaper and try to make another run at it, depends where we open but we should be over T2 range which tells us more shorts are trapped under for potential support and if we run out of supply in 4100-4084 area then we will need to get more over Fridays high which if broken will create more buying to possibly get us to test next supply area. Our support is under 4084-77, red flag if we break and start holding under 4061-56, ideally we consolidate under or above support then start pushing away from 4084 again during RTH BUT since its a big supply area they might try to consolidate then get over 4100 during Globex since there is less volume and use that as support later in the day, if that happens we might will have to watch potential support under 4100 and resistance areas stay the same. Have to be careful up here because size is doing business here and they don't care what anyone thinks as they will get their fill or do what they need to do. We are towards an edge where things like reversals happen but that takes time to play out or can be very quick.

If we did happen to finish this move higher and longs are trapped, we have to start seeing price break and hold below our lower support areas and moving away from this supply, until then they might keep moving it higher.

Levels to Watch: Resistance: 4168-4162 //4143-37 // 4123-19 // 4100 Support: 4084-77 // 4061-56 // 4030-25 // 4012-08 // 3957-53