Setups (A++ first)
1) SHORT — Retest-and-fail of supply (preferred)
• Zones: 6,433–36 or 6,445–47 (upper band 6,469–71).
• Trigger: 5-minute bearish close back below the shelf (no retest required); size to full only if a 15-minute bearish prints within the next 3×5m bars.
• Risk: entry +6–8 pts.
• TPs: +15 / +27 / +42 pts from entry (e.g., 6,445 → 6,430 / 6,418 / 6,403).
• Continuation guard: within 2×5m price must extend the low or print a lower high while failing to reclaim the shelf; otherwise cut ½ or scratch to BE.
2) SHORT — Breakdown & acceptance
• Trigger: 5m close < 6,418 and no immediate reclaim next bar.
• Risk: entry +6–8 pts.
• TPs: toward 6,406 → 6,392 → 6,382–76.
3) LONG — Only if promoted
• Trigger: 5m close & hold ≥ 6,436 (offers pull/flip; next bar holds).
• Risk: 6–8 pts (around 6,430).
• TPs: 6,451 → 6,459–60 → 6,471–72.
• Stand-down: lose 6,436 on a 5m close or see offers reload overhead.
Execution windows: 9:45–10:45 ET and 13:50–15:30 ET; avoid new risk 11:30–13:30 without momentum/confirmation.
Key levels (from HTF → LTF)
• Pivot / line-in-sand: 6,463 (short bias while ≤ this).
• Supply / sell zones: 6,433–36, 6,445–47, 6,469–71 (cap), 6,476.
• Supports / magnets: 6,419–18, 6,406–03, 6,392–88, 6,382–76, 6,370, 6,357–52.
Fundamentals — Thu, Aug 21, 2025 (ET)
• 08:30 — Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (DOL). Weekly claims are published Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET. 
• 08:30 — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). Next release Aug 21, 8:30 a.m. ET. 
• 10:00 — Existing Home Sales (July, NAR). NAR schedules the Jul report for Thu, Aug 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET. 
• 10:00 — Conference Board LEI (July). Thu, Aug 21, 10:00 a.m. ET.  
• 10:30 — EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage. Standard release Thursdays 10:30 a.m. ET; next release Aug 21.  
• S&P Global Flash US PMI (Aug). Scheduled for Thursday (check S&P calendar; release times shown in UTC on their site). 
• Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins (Aug 21–23). 2025 theme: “Labor Markets in Transition.” 
How I’ll adapt intraday
• A stronger-than-expected Claims/PMI/Philly Fed that lifts yields and the USD into 6,433–36 / 6,445–47 favors setup #1 (fade the pop).
• EHS/LEI at 10:00 can whipsaw a breakdown—prefer acceptance before pressing setup #2.
• If Jackson Hole headlines skew risk-on and we accept ≥ 6,436, switch to setup #3 toward 6,451/60/71–72.
1) SHORT — Retest-and-fail of supply (preferred)
• Zones: 6,433–36 or 6,445–47 (upper band 6,469–71).
• Trigger: 5-minute bearish close back below the shelf (no retest required); size to full only if a 15-minute bearish prints within the next 3×5m bars.
• Risk: entry +6–8 pts.
• TPs: +15 / +27 / +42 pts from entry (e.g., 6,445 → 6,430 / 6,418 / 6,403).
• Continuation guard: within 2×5m price must extend the low or print a lower high while failing to reclaim the shelf; otherwise cut ½ or scratch to BE.
2) SHORT — Breakdown & acceptance
• Trigger: 5m close < 6,418 and no immediate reclaim next bar.
• Risk: entry +6–8 pts.
• TPs: toward 6,406 → 6,392 → 6,382–76.
3) LONG — Only if promoted
• Trigger: 5m close & hold ≥ 6,436 (offers pull/flip; next bar holds).
• Risk: 6–8 pts (around 6,430).
• TPs: 6,451 → 6,459–60 → 6,471–72.
• Stand-down: lose 6,436 on a 5m close or see offers reload overhead.
Execution windows: 9:45–10:45 ET and 13:50–15:30 ET; avoid new risk 11:30–13:30 without momentum/confirmation.
Key levels (from HTF → LTF)
• Pivot / line-in-sand: 6,463 (short bias while ≤ this).
• Supply / sell zones: 6,433–36, 6,445–47, 6,469–71 (cap), 6,476.
• Supports / magnets: 6,419–18, 6,406–03, 6,392–88, 6,382–76, 6,370, 6,357–52.
Fundamentals — Thu, Aug 21, 2025 (ET)
• 08:30 — Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (DOL). Weekly claims are published Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET. 
• 08:30 — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). Next release Aug 21, 8:30 a.m. ET. 
• 10:00 — Existing Home Sales (July, NAR). NAR schedules the Jul report for Thu, Aug 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET. 
• 10:00 — Conference Board LEI (July). Thu, Aug 21, 10:00 a.m. ET.  
• 10:30 — EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage. Standard release Thursdays 10:30 a.m. ET; next release Aug 21.  
• S&P Global Flash US PMI (Aug). Scheduled for Thursday (check S&P calendar; release times shown in UTC on their site). 
• Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins (Aug 21–23). 2025 theme: “Labor Markets in Transition.” 
How I’ll adapt intraday
• A stronger-than-expected Claims/PMI/Philly Fed that lifts yields and the USD into 6,433–36 / 6,445–47 favors setup #1 (fade the pop).
• EHS/LEI at 10:00 can whipsaw a breakdown—prefer acceptance before pressing setup #2.
• If Jackson Hole headlines skew risk-on and we accept ≥ 6,436, switch to setup #3 toward 6,451/60/71–72.
If you want to contact me here is my Discord channel discord.gg/wPHfYgv892
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这些信息和出版物并不意味着也不构成TradingView提供或认可的金融、投资、交易或其它类型的建议或背书。请在使用条款阅读更多信息。
If you want to contact me here is my Discord channel discord.gg/wPHfYgv892
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并不意味着也不构成TradingView提供或认可的金融、投资、交易或其它类型的建议或背书。请在使用条款阅读更多信息。