EURJPY: MSS on H4 Signals Bearish Shift Toward Weekly FVG

Greetings Traders,
In today’s analysis of EURJPY, we observe that a Market Structure Shift (MSS) has recently occurred on the H4 timeframe, indicating a potential change in directional bias. This suggests that price may begin to draw toward the Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG), presenting a favorable opportunity to align with bearish order flow.

Higher Timeframe Context:
The weekly timeframe currently shows an unfilled Fair Value Gap (FVG) to the downside, acting as the primary draw on liquidity. This macro bearish draw adds weight to the idea of shorting the pair from premium levels. On the H4—our intermediate timeframe—we now have structural confirmation via a bearish MSS, aligning the two timeframes toward downside targets.

Key Observations on H4:

Bearish Order Block in Premium: Price has recently retraced into an H4 bearish order block situated within premium pricing. This zone acts as institutional resistance and is currently showing signs of rejection.
Confirmation Zone: This H4 bearish order block is being monitored for M15 confirmation entries, as we look for price to break lower from this key institutional level.
Engineered Support & Resting Liquidity: Just above the weekly FVG lies an engineered support zone—characterized by equal lows—suggesting that liquidity has been pooled there. This area serves as a high-probability draw for institutional price delivery.

Trading Plan:

Entry Strategy: Seek lower timeframe (M15) confirmation around the H4 bearish order block before initiating short positions.
Targets: The first target lies at the H4 internal liquidity pool within discounted pricing. The longer-term objective is the weekly FVG, where liquidity is likely to be delivered next.

For a detailed analysis, please watch this weeks Forex Outlook: