I have been looking for this move, for a long long time. Finally we have the big boy impuls.
Look for a higher low around 1.48 thats where a good entry should form on lower timeframes.
I am looking to leave my positions for 1.72 and 2.000. These are my longterm targets on this pair.
Once this beast starts moving, it will be violent and fast. but right now we are still in the bottom forming phase. There are still some swings to be made before it goes higher.
Why i think the recent break the yearlong trendline is important ? Because even as stocks advanced in the recent weeks to multiple record highs. The EURNZD risk trade went the other way, and broke higher. We have a break of the correlation, which is for me a important momentum change and will result in higher prices in the coming months.
What environment can we expect for this to move higher to continue.
Two important fundamental themes should be realizing in my view!
1st. Rate hikes in the US. This theme is important because in the long run, stocks will be compelled to go lower, if interest rates start to go consistently higher. That point is why the EURNZD saw this appreciation last week. The US interest rates seem to be going higher and quicker than many thought.
2nd. Inflation in the eurozone. Currently its too early to say, but the inflation data is coming every month a little bit higher in the eurozone, and there seems to be something brewing which could lead to consistent higher inflation also looking at germany harmonized cpi is moving higher consistently. This could lead the ecb into tapering faster than thought, and a topic like this will support all the EUR pairs.
Look for a higher low around 1.48 thats where a good entry should form on lower timeframes.
I am looking to leave my positions for 1.72 and 2.000. These are my longterm targets on this pair.
Once this beast starts moving, it will be violent and fast. but right now we are still in the bottom forming phase. There are still some swings to be made before it goes higher.
Why i think the recent break the yearlong trendline is important ? Because even as stocks advanced in the recent weeks to multiple record highs. The EURNZD risk trade went the other way, and broke higher. We have a break of the correlation, which is for me a important momentum change and will result in higher prices in the coming months.
What environment can we expect for this to move higher to continue.
Two important fundamental themes should be realizing in my view!
1st. Rate hikes in the US. This theme is important because in the long run, stocks will be compelled to go lower, if interest rates start to go consistently higher. That point is why the EURNZD saw this appreciation last week. The US interest rates seem to be going higher and quicker than many thought.
2nd. Inflation in the eurozone. Currently its too early to say, but the inflation data is coming every month a little bit higher in the eurozone, and there seems to be something brewing which could lead to consistent higher inflation also looking at germany harmonized cpi is moving higher consistently. This could lead the ecb into tapering faster than thought, and a topic like this will support all the EUR pairs.
