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Monitoring Weekly Trading, Plus Elliot Wave Theory Consideration

FX:EURUSD   欧元/美元
52 0 4
Well, on this chart we may also see the resistance we've hit on Friday evening.

Point for Consideration ( PC ) 1. For the previous week (T0) we've come across resistance at Fibonacci Retracement level 0.618, where we can see the closing price of the last candlestick of the trading session from Friday evening.

Point for Consideration ( PC ) 2. For the week (T-1), we've come across the resistance at Fibonacci Retracement level 0.09, where we can see the highest price of the last candlestick of the trading session from Friday evening.

NB! From PC 1, it is still not very clear whether we have reversed the downward trend from the previous month, respectively for week (T0), week (T-1), week (T-2), and week (T-3).

NB! From PC 2, it is still quite likely that we continue our drop-down trend, because the previous week (T0) managed to correct only as little as 9% from the weekly figure for week (T-1).

Summary:
I. If we consider the above mentioned reasons, no matter of the Friday's powerful fx push up, if we look at the entire market development for week (T0), it still looks like a reversal pattern of a bigger downward trend has taken place.

II. Moreover, it seems that after Friday's last hours of trading, we've already reached the maximum upward potentiality.

NB! Elliot Wave Theory:
My assumptions here are, considering market data and market expectations, that we've made Wave No. 4.
And Wave No. 3 has been the consecutive 3 weeks of fx rate falling down.
=> For this reason, it seems quite likely that in the following 1-2 weeks, week (T+1) and week (T+2), we're quite likely to go further downwards in order to form Wave No. 5.

Early Predicting Attempts:
A. After (if) this happens, then we're quite likely to experience Expanding Flat Consolidation after Wave No. 5 (expanding zigzag-like movement) that may take place in the range between 1.05 and 1.105, taking also into consideration the results and the early aftermath of the U.S. Presidential Elections, and of course, we would have to take in mind E.U. data accordingly.
B. If this is the case, the chances for STARTING UP an upward trend towards further falling down would be something like 0.7/0.3, but this will greatly depend on the major events coming up in November.

Cheers!
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