EURUSD
This week of November will most likely be the most important week of the year.
Context
EURUSD has been in a bear market for the entirety of 2022, falling a whopping 16.2% .
As the year begins to round up, talks of a FED pivot has been in the air and resulting in an increased risk on sentiments
that have resulted in 2 consecutive weekly bullish candles.
Where do price go from here?
I have identified the 2 possible directions and insights/rationale to them.
#1 Analysis:
1. ECB's dovish switch on recent monetary statement
2. Upcoming FOMC meeting will set to stone the stance of the FED
3. Maintained hawkish stance -> interest rate differential and tonality will prevail
4. NFP prints resilient and strong -> further incentives for hawkishness by FED
5. USD strengthens
#2 Analysis:
1. Upcoming FOMC meeting CONFIRMS FED pivot to dovish territories
2. Time for doves and goodbye Hawks.
3. Increases risk on sentiments in the market.
4. NFP prints poorly which shows the rate hikes has done its job.
5. USD weakens
Both ways are possible.
Let's all wait and see how the week ends.