DAX: What if China is not back to work on Monday

2020年2月6日

Right now, we have a broadening formation in the DAX; this usually happens, when the market in disagreement. On the upside this lead us to 13,720, but what would happen if China is going to extend the "vacations" by another two/four weeks. For German manufacturers this would lead to an demand shock, since a lot of German manufacturers are heavily involved in the supply chain of Chinese companies (via JV).

So, what do we see:

• Higher volumes: Cash-Market and Future volumes (Source: deutsche-boerse-cash-market)
  
• Trumpet (starting in Nov. 2019 - Feb. 2020); disagreement in the market
  
• Short signal: Hindenburg-Indicator
  
• Short Signal: MACD weekly
  
• Upper end of the trend channel
  
• Event would affect the cashflows of German companies (for at least this year)
  

My trading plan depends this time on the news which we will get within the next couple of days.

If we see an extend of the "vacation", I expect another sell-off, which could lead us to the EMA 200 daily.

2020年2月7日

交易开始

2020年2月18日

注释

It seems that we Start moving. Be patient...

2020年2月20日

注释

Be patient, be patient, be patient

2020年2月24日

注释

I am closing some positions around 13300. The remaining part with TP 13200/12900.

2020年2月24日

注释

TP 1 reached

2020年2月25日

交易结束：到达目标

We have just reached the 12,900. Hence we have made between 600 - 820 points. I really hope you enjoyed the trade. It was the largest "central bank driven bull trap" in the last two years.