DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): INSIDE US TRADE BALANCE
Looking at the Export and Import data of the last several years we can assume that the US is currently changing its course from consumption oriented to export oriented economy. The change will not be overnight and may take up to several decades, but eventually we can see the US trade deficit gradually erased!
On the export side, we can see that US has restored its sales to other countries far beyond the peak of 2008. Moreover, Exports continue to grow within an ascending channel. It is only recently that the readings fell out of the channel, mostly due to the impact of US dollar appreciation.
On the import side, US has restored its consumption back to the 2008 levels, however did not expand beyond it significantly. Exports trend laterally since about 2011 after reaching 2008 peal level!
On the export side, we can see that US has restored its sales to other countries far beyond the peak of 2008. Moreover, Exports continue to grow within an ascending channel. It is only recently that the readings fell out of the channel, mostly due to the impact of US dollar appreciation.
On the import side, US has restored its consumption back to the 2008 levels, however did not expand beyond it significantly. Exports trend laterally since about 2011 after reaching 2008 peal level!
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