A quick look at the latest CME options data for Gold shows some interesting signals. It looks like the bulls might be getting tired.
The Big Signal: We're seeing big trading volume, but the number of actual open positions (Open Interest) has barely changed.
Calls: 27,274 contracts traded, but only +2,933 new positions were opened.
What this means: This isn't new money flooding in. It's big players shuffling their decks and taking chips off the table.
What's happening with Calls? 🔼
Traders are closing out their winning bets on strikes like $3850, $3800, and
4000
The Takeaway 🎯
The market sentiment is shifting from bullish to neutral & defensive. Big players are:
Cashing out their profits on call options.
This kind of activity is a sign that an uptrend could be running out of steam.
However, another leg up for gold is still possible. The argument for this scenario is the presence of a futures hedge within many of PUT spread portfolios. The logic works like this: if the asset's price continues to rise, profits are taken on the futures leg, and the position is closed. This profit can then make the put spread a breakeven trade, essentially providing downside protection for free, even if the price keeps rallying.
As for me, main bias: short at upper ER (if you're unfamiliar with the ER concept, check out my profile for a detailed post on Expected Range).)
Entry on touch. Risk kept small.
The Big Signal: We're seeing big trading volume, but the number of actual open positions (Open Interest) has barely changed.
Calls: 27,274 contracts traded, but only +2,933 new positions were opened.
What this means: This isn't new money flooding in. It's big players shuffling their decks and taking chips off the table.
What's happening with Calls? 🔼
Traders are closing out their winning bets on strikes like $3850, $3800, and
4000
The Takeaway 🎯
The market sentiment is shifting from bullish to neutral & defensive. Big players are:
Cashing out their profits on call options.
This kind of activity is a sign that an uptrend could be running out of steam.
However, another leg up for gold is still possible. The argument for this scenario is the presence of a futures hedge within many of PUT spread portfolios. The logic works like this: if the asset's price continues to rise, profits are taken on the futures leg, and the position is closed. This profit can then make the put spread a breakeven trade, essentially providing downside protection for free, even if the price keeps rallying.
As for me, main bias: short at upper ER (if you're unfamiliar with the ER concept, check out my profile for a detailed post on Expected Range).)
Entry on touch. Risk kept small.
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并不意味着也不构成TradingView提供或认可的金融、投资、交易或其它类型的建议或背书。请在使用条款阅读更多信息。