GOOGLE Bear Cycle has started and this is its ultimate blueprint

We made this chart on Google (GOOG) a little more than a month ago, warning of a potential market top on the Higher Highs trend-line of the multi-year Channel Up.

Well 3 weeks ago, the market hit that trend-line and we have a legitimate technical reason to expect that the Bull Cycle has topped. The 1W RSI has even printed the same kind of peak formation it did in September 2021.

We have extended the Channel Up on today's analysis all the way back to Google's IPO and the Fibonacci retracement levels serve absolute justice since the beginning to identify tops and bottoms.

You can see that the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) has acted as the ultimate Support, thus best buy entry, on the last three major market corrections: the March 2020 COVID crash, the October 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom and the April 2025 (almost) Tariff War.

Before that, it was the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) that gave two excellent buy opportunities back-to-back.

As a result, even though the 2022 Bearish Leg correction bottomed on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, this time we will 'limit' the new Bear Cycle to those MA trend-lines, the MA100 and MA200. If the price is contained on the MA100, its current trajectory shows a potential 'fair' contact around $230. If the market fails to rebound there, we expect a Q3 2026 bottom on the 1W MA200 around $190.

Regardless of that, we will also be looking closing at the 1W RSI. Since the 2020 COVID crash, and those 3 in total major corrections that the Alphabet stock had, when the RSI hit the 32.00 level, it presented an objective buy opportunity, even though in 2022 it dipped even lower.

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