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According to jobless claims, recession is unlikely before 2019

FRED:ICSA   Initial Claims
Jobless claims indicator has been a reliable indicator of recessions. By examining a historical chart that goes back to 1960s we see a similar pattern in the behavior of claims and recessions.

Every single recession the U.S. encountered in the underlying period was preceded by a rise in jobless claims. The chart above draws the quarterly jobless claims. The shaded areas are the periods of recession.

The quarters that the U.S. officially got into recession in all cases were preceded by multiple quarters of rising jobless claims, and in most cases these rises are consecutive.

For example, ahead of the 2008 great recession, jobless claims increased for three consecutive quarters.
2001 recession was preceded by 5 quarters of rising claims( latest 3 were consecutive)
1990-1991 recession was preceded by 8 quarters of rising claims (latest 3 were consecutive)
the earlier recession have also had the same pattern.

Before any recession, we had a minimum of three quarters of rising jobless claims and in one case we had 8 quarters.

Having that in mind, it is highly unlikely that the U.S. will encounter an official recession soon(before 2019).


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Hi Tech, is your website ready? I'm very excited with that!
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This is nice and informative post
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To complement with this jobless claim data

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Brilliant. Been following your analysis and trades. Definitely a lot to learn from your analysis. Just curious, where did we get these data/charts. Is it available within the construct of trading view. Looking forward to your Fx Channel launch to join and gain more insight.
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Thank you for that useful info, my view is the same as I look at the US yield curve, its getting flat due to US's QT implement but this is the signs of its commencing but I agree with you still there are some time, maybe late 2018 ir in 2019.
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stronger dollar down the road?
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@pmcllc, not necessarily, This is just an observation and i believe correlates more to the stocks market at this stage.
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Tech
it will be interesting to watch if you can co relate DXY with claims:)
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woah....love this information, my first time knowing and seeing this
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