So last week market chose the devious path of scenario2, trapping longs and then bringing it down to the 12626 region. Price is now at bottom of the channel, so a retracement may be expected since volume analysis informs us of some strength.
Possible Scenarios - Retracement and follow the downward channel
Weekly = Average vol down bar closing off low = minor strength Daily = Ave volume, narrower range down bar closing off low = minor strength H4:Ultra high vol up bar closing below mid of bar and next bar closed lower = weakness
Price reaction levels: Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept