Sensex Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 14th October

Based on the charts and the market's performance on Monday, October 13, the Sensex experienced a sharp pullback from its high, ending its recent winning streak. The current structure is corrective within a larger bullish trend.

Detailed Market Structure Breakdown

4-Hour Chart (Macro Trend)

Structure: The Sensex is still in a bullish recovery phase but has decisively broken below the lower trendline of its very steep short-term ascending channel. The last 4H candle is a bearish candle that breached immediate support levels, confirming the shift to a short-term correction.

Key Levels:

Major Supply (Resistance): 82,300 - 82,500. This area is the critical overhead hurdle (Order Block), which the market was unable to break.

Major Demand (Support): 81,600 - 81,800. This area is the key immediate support, aligning with the major FVG (Fair Value Gap) and the start of the final bullish leg.

Outlook: The short-term bias is sideways-to-bullish. The market is expected to seek support near the 81,600 level.

1-Hour Chart (Intermediate View)

Structure: The 1H chart shows a clear Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside, breaking the lower trendline of the steep ascending channel. The price is now moving within a descending corrective channel.

Key Levels:

Immediate Resistance: 82,150 (Prior consolidation support, now resistance).

Immediate Support: 81,800 (The psychological level and the first major support of the current corrective channel).

15-Minute Chart (Intraday View)

Structure: The 15M chart confirms the sharp, selling pressure. The market is trading within a descending channel after being rejected from the 82,300 high. The close near the lows indicates bears were in control at the end of the session.

Key Levels:

Intraday Supply: 82,100 (Recent swing high/upper channel boundary).

Intraday Demand: 81,600.

Outlook: Bullish. A "Buy on Dips" strategy is recommended near 82,100.

📈 Trade Plan (Tuesday, 14th October)

Bullish Scenario (Primary Plan)

Justification: Only valid if strong buying emerges to defend the major support and reclaim the entire breakdown structure.

Trigger: A sustained move and close above the resistance at 82,300.

Entry: Long entry on a confirmed 15-minute close above 82,300.

Stop Loss (SL): Below 82,100.

Targets:

T1: 82,500 (Major supply zone).

T2: 82,800 (Extension target).

Bearish Scenario (Counter-Trend/Reversal Plan)

Justification: The breakdown of the steep channel and the heavy rejection from 82,300 favor continuation toward the next major support.

Entry: Short entry on a successful retest and rejection of the 82,000 - 82,100 zone (upper channel resistance). Alternatively, short a decisive break and 15-minute candle close below 81,600.

Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss above 82,300 (above the immediate swing high).

Targets:

T1: 81,600 (Major FVG support).

T2: 81,400 (Extension target).

Key Levels for Observation:

Immediate Decision Point: 81,800 - 82,100 zone.

Bearish Confirmation: A break and sustained move below 81,600.

Bullish Confirmation: A move back above 82,300.

Line in the Sand: 81,600. Below this level, the short-term bullish bias is nullified.