Sensex Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 1st October

The market is firmly in a strong bearish trend, but the close at a pivotal support suggests extreme volatility today due to the RBI MPC outcome.

Detailed Market Structure Breakdown

4-Hour Chart (Macro Trend)

Structure: The Sensex is in an accelerated corrective phase, trading within a steep descending channel. The price is positioned right on the strong macro demand zone of 80,200 - 80,400. This area is a key Bullish Order Block (OB) and the base of the previous significant rally. The recent candle shows a pullback, followed by consolidation at this level.

Key Levels:

Major Supply (Resistance): 81,000 - 81,200. This area is the key overhead resistance, aligned with the upper boundary of the descending channel and a short-term FVG (Fair Value Gap).

Major Demand (Support): 80,200 - 80,400. This is the crucial "line in the sand." A sustained breakdown below 80,200 would trigger a deeper correction toward 79,500 - 79,700.

Outlook: The market is at an inflection point ahead of the RBI MPC outcome. A failure to hold this support is likely to lead to aggressive selling.

1-Hour Chart (Intermediate View)

Structure: The 1H chart is strongly bearish, confined to a descending channel. The market is consolidating right at the 80,400 support, with the price action forming a tight range. This suggests indecision as the market awaits the major news event.

Key Levels:

Immediate Resistance: 80,800 (The recent swing high and short-term FVG).

Immediate Support: 80,200.

15-Minute Chart (Intraday View)

Structure: The 15M chart shows tight consolidation. Price action on Tuesday was mostly sideways, characterized by small wicks and overlapping candles. The presence of Sell-side Liquidity below the recent lows suggests the market may attempt to sweep this level before any move up.

Key Levels:

Intraday Supply: 80,600. This is the immediate consolidation resistance.

Intraday Demand: 80,200 - 80,300. The crucial support zone.

Outlook: Neutral, highly sensitive to the RBI announcement.

Trade Plan (Wednesday, 1st October)

Market Outlook: Extreme caution is advised due to the RBI MPC outcome at 10 AM IST. The market's move today will be largely event-driven. The plan should be reactive to the post-announcement volatility.

Bearish Scenario (Primary Plan)

Justification: The continuation of the steep bearish trend, likely triggered by a hawkish pause from the RBI or a sustained move below the support.

Entry: Short entry on a decisive break and 15-minute candle close below 80,200.

Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss above 80,400.

Targets:

T1: 80,000 (Psychological support).

T2: 79,700 (Next major demand zone).

Bullish Scenario (Counter-Trend/Reversal Plan)

Justification: A strong short-covering rally, possibly triggered by a "dovish pause" or a surprise rate cut from the RBI.

Trigger: A sustained move and close above the resistance at 80,800.

Entry: Long entry on a confirmed 15-minute close above 80,800.

Stop Loss (SL): Below 80,600.

Targets:

T1: 81,200 (Upper channel resistance).

T2: 81,600 (Major supply zone).

Key Levels for Observation:

Immediate Decision Point: The 80,200 - 80,800 zone.

Bearish Confirmation: A break and sustained move below 80,200.

Bullish Confirmation: A recapture of the 80,800 level.

Crucial Event: RBI MPC outcome at 10 AM IST. Trade small quantities or wait until the market absorbs the news.

Line in the Sand: 80,200. Below this, sellers are in control.