MacroView_Research

Silver Likely to See a Pullback Near-Term

AMEX:SLV   iShares Silver Trust
Silver has seen an unexpected rally to most and continues to show strength as holdings of silver-backed ETFs reach all-time highs. Since posting "Potential Inflection in SLV: Price Action and Options," (under CommoditiesTrader) SLV is up almost 22 percent.

However, near-term there will be a correction to work off the overbought conditions.

  • The RSI was quite elevated at 77, while the z-score hit a near-term high of 2.9
  • The +/-DMI is showing that price action still remains positive but the ADX is beginning to tick lower.
  • The stochastic indicator is currently over bought at 87.51/93.26

Of course, precious metals will move with headlines. Given the sharp two-day decline, the SLV looks promising between $15.90 and $15.60. If traders sell through the secondary uptrend near $15.60, we could see further selling to $15.

It's important to remember the risk is dynamic. Traders will flock to the safe-haven aspect of silver if more troubling news surface about European banks, Brexit and, simply, slowing growth.

A correction will only be healthy going forward. The weekly chart shows at $17 is a tough nut to crack - only seeing one close above this level since January '15.


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