Based on the current part of the cycle we are at I would guess the market goes forward in a fashion something like this.
The Fed is more less at the end of the rate hike cycle. Look back to history and you will typically see the market makes ATH before the recession hit and market crash/ correction. Such as 2006 the fed ended their rate hikes and the market did have a sizeable correction but made new all time highs. Similar to 2018 where the Fed stopped hiking and after a sizeable correction the market made new ath going into 2020. You can also compare this to the cycle of the yield curve.
So based on the long term trend since 2009 and all the previous consolidation around 4000 we have the area around 4100-4200 would act as a solid support.
The Fed is more less at the end of the rate hike cycle. Look back to history and you will typically see the market makes ATH before the recession hit and market crash/ correction. Such as 2006 the fed ended their rate hikes and the market did have a sizeable correction but made new all time highs. Similar to 2018 where the Fed stopped hiking and after a sizeable correction the market made new ath going into 2020. You can also compare this to the cycle of the yield curve.
So based on the long term trend since 2009 and all the previous consolidation around 4000 we have the area around 4100-4200 would act as a solid support.