Finding Recession Bottoms
With so many calling market bottoms already, I want to show you how we are not there yet, with this simple 3 Month (1 Quarter) chart. We can see, via SPX & VIX, for the bottom in last 2 recessions (2020 & 2008), that quarter had:
VIX over 40 (not equal to, since Oct 08 quarter was exactly 40 & not yet bottom)
capitulation from significant SPX selling Volume (2020 had 182 billion, we need to see at least close to that)
So just those 2 things, if you can wait for each Quarter candle to complete, will show when we have recession bottom. In this recession, the VIX has barely woken up in the high 20s, & Volume selling pressure has been lukewarm, due to many investors still holding on to their previously high growth stocks, or buying more thinking those favorite stocks are now on sale & will rise again to their previous speculative highs.
We still have more pain to go. The longer we hold on & deny this recession affects us significantly, the longer & more brutal this bear market will be.
Invest wisely. Trade swiftly.
VIX over 40 (not equal to, since Oct 08 quarter was exactly 40 & not yet bottom)
capitulation from significant SPX selling Volume (2020 had 182 billion, we need to see at least close to that)
So just those 2 things, if you can wait for each Quarter candle to complete, will show when we have recession bottom. In this recession, the VIX has barely woken up in the high 20s, & Volume selling pressure has been lukewarm, due to many investors still holding on to their previously high growth stocks, or buying more thinking those favorite stocks are now on sale & will rise again to their previous speculative highs.
We still have more pain to go. The longer we hold on & deny this recession affects us significantly, the longer & more brutal this bear market will be.
Invest wisely. Trade swiftly.
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