S&P 500 market crash odds rising due to new black swan events

SP:SPX   标准普尔500指数
217 1
While US stock market bulls are near to establish a bottom above 2334, a bottom area which had just begun to gain increasing odds to hold the lows starting in the second week of April 2017 after recent initial jobless claims dropped and ADP data showed stronger job creation --- now the market can easily fall back into the hands of the stock market bears in the next weeks, because of several black swan events which already happened (Fed surprisingly announced reduction of their balance sheet , US attacked Syria, which complicates their relationship with Russia, terror attack in Sweden and "Apple" is rumored to delay the iPhone 8 launch to October or November, 'iMac 2017' likely to be released In 2018 due to delays).

And because the bears lost time in the neutral sideways trend during the first week of April, the move of the bears could get even more severe than I had expected in March.

Here is my original bearish outlook:

.png' src='/static/images/svg/idea-image-placeholder.svg' alt='S&P 500: Major US stock market pullback until around May 2017' class="js-image-lazy-load">

Short entry: 2360-2375
Target: 2300-2280-(2250)
Stop loss: 2385
Risk: 15-25
Reward: 60-95-(110)

My worst case scenario for bulls is on this chart, which I created in July 2016:

Many thanks for your awesome posts! I have gone short last night and I was wondering do you think this strong pullback will begin Monday or next week or are we still a few weeks before a move to 2300?
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