Two scenarios.
Bull scenario
We see two times a double bottom on the daily. Buyers are getting in charge. Also, yields have come down significantly last 3 weeks, which indicates money could be flowing back to equities. This would test recent local highs - the blue box. Not given that we will find the way up from here before testing downside.
Bear scenario
The falling channel will give resistance around 3900, and around this level we also see the daily 50EMA/SMA (not shown here) giving resistance.
Yields and inflation is still an issue. Recession gossip is going around. We could test further downside.
3400 is 30pct correction from ATH and pre covid high, which is where buyers could be hiding.
The orange trendline is the trendline supporting the 2008 and 2020 yearly lows. Massive strong support. Big money will be buying here for sure.
Only in case of exploding yields / growing inflation / extreme recession, we could go lower, but markets tend to look further ahead and not let that happen so easily.
Personal view: bottoming around 3300-3400.
Bull scenario
We see two times a double bottom on the daily. Buyers are getting in charge. Also, yields have come down significantly last 3 weeks, which indicates money could be flowing back to equities. This would test recent local highs - the blue box. Not given that we will find the way up from here before testing downside.
Bear scenario
The falling channel will give resistance around 3900, and around this level we also see the daily 50EMA/SMA (not shown here) giving resistance.
Yields and inflation is still an issue. Recession gossip is going around. We could test further downside.
3400 is 30pct correction from ATH and pre covid high, which is where buyers could be hiding.
The orange trendline is the trendline supporting the 2008 and 2020 yearly lows. Massive strong support. Big money will be buying here for sure.
Only in case of exploding yields / growing inflation / extreme recession, we could go lower, but markets tend to look further ahead and not let that happen so easily.
Personal view: bottoming around 3300-3400.
评论:
Alternative scenario realised. We havent stretched full upside yet (RSI daily could push higher) but downside turn bigger again from this range.