Wen 420 $SPY? Hold up buster.

2023年3月6日

1/ WHAT HAPPENED?
It's no secret that the past 2 days attracted tons of buyers and bullish sentiment on Twitter regarding SPY 420+. My take: Unless we see a definitive break above ~$408 (see chart), this'll be another bear rally. I'll be evaluating this as the week progresses.

2/ MY POSITIONING
- Taking an initial short on AAPL 145P 5/19 this week -- a #SPY sympathy play with potential for further drawdown. Keep in mind resistance at $156.40.
- Based on market price action, I may also consider shorting SPY. Patience is crucial given #JPOW is back on 3/7-3/8.

3/ PREPARING FOR THIS WEEK | VIX
- Despite notable macroeconomic problems (i.e. inflation, earnings declines, and rate hikes), VIX is lagging in strength. To curb the recent upward trend, I'm hoping for VIX to remain above its February low, approximately at $17.5.

4/ PREPARING FOR THIS WEEK | DXY
- To see more SPY drawdown, I'm looking for clear upward movement above ~$105.2 beyond the supply zone.

To reiterate, I am long-term short, but cautious of how price action will play out in the near term.

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