All cryptographic formulations of money *except* BTC:
I shared an idea recently in which I suggested January (and perhaps some of February) could be spent deviating beneath first quarter retracement.
This idea came from the fact that in the last cycle there was a 9 week deviation beneath the first quarter before TOTAL2 reclaimed first quarter and then sent higher through its previous all-time high.
One thing to note is that during that deviation beneath first quarter last cycle, price found support at the weekly 12 moving average, which happens to also be where price found support this time around, earlier this month.
Perhaps that test of the weekly 12 moving average is a sufficient test of demand, and now that we reclaimed the first quarter retracement our bias should be that momentum to upside is likely to accelerate from this juncture, so long as we remain above first quarter.
If we lose first quarter retracement we can reassess, but with weekly 12 moving average moving higher, soon to be above first quarter, time is running out for bears to smack us back down beneath first quarter.
Also, important to note that with BTC ETF behind us, much of the speculation is likely to focus on everything but BTC (TOTAL2), at least until the halving narrative in late April, after which we may see a resurgence in BTC domination.
So for now, the increase in speculation around everything but BTC is likely to propel TOTAL2 higher into halving imo.
Also, worth noting that total time capitulation (in days since previous peak before marking up above first quarter) is roughly 1000 days currently, just like last cycle.
I shared an idea recently in which I suggested January (and perhaps some of February) could be spent deviating beneath first quarter retracement.
This idea came from the fact that in the last cycle there was a 9 week deviation beneath the first quarter before TOTAL2 reclaimed first quarter and then sent higher through its previous all-time high.
One thing to note is that during that deviation beneath first quarter last cycle, price found support at the weekly 12 moving average, which happens to also be where price found support this time around, earlier this month.
Perhaps that test of the weekly 12 moving average is a sufficient test of demand, and now that we reclaimed the first quarter retracement our bias should be that momentum to upside is likely to accelerate from this juncture, so long as we remain above first quarter.
If we lose first quarter retracement we can reassess, but with weekly 12 moving average moving higher, soon to be above first quarter, time is running out for bears to smack us back down beneath first quarter.
Also, important to note that with BTC ETF behind us, much of the speculation is likely to focus on everything but BTC (TOTAL2), at least until the halving narrative in late April, after which we may see a resurgence in BTC domination.
So for now, the increase in speculation around everything but BTC is likely to propel TOTAL2 higher into halving imo.
Also, worth noting that total time capitulation (in days since previous peak before marking up above first quarter) is roughly 1000 days currently, just like last cycle.