Are Altcoins Safe Again? TRX Correction May Be Over
已更新
I wanted to post a TRX update, since I've nailed pretty much every single move for this coin during the last several months. Maybe I can keep it up :P At bottom, you can find the unbelievably accurate TRX charts I've made.
In my last TRX post, I gave possible support areas, and I also explained why the correction would likely be a long one. I was comparing the RSI from the last correctional period. In my very first TRX analysis, where I predicted the major run up from its bottom in the low 300 sat area, the breakout point was around 430 sats. This was a very important psychological area. Had one gone long there, it would have generated 100% profits fairly quickly in Bitcoin value. I also called the top once it made it to the 800 sat area. 430 was the lowest point I was looking at for a possible re-entry for the long term (might continue to stick with NEO for now, but that's my decision. I just prefer the NEO/ONT ecosystem. TRX could outperform it based on hype alone).
TRX went slightly below 430 just recently, but it has since been bought back up above that support on increasing volume. This is a bullish signal. People's stop losses were hit below 430, simple as that. I would pay attention to how TRX behaves over the next few days, as it actually led the previous alt cycle (many forget this, but it actually pumped before Litecoin). I posted an IOTABTC chart recently to track a possible beginning of an altcoin cycle, but this one may be an even better bellwether. If TRX slides back below 430, that probably won't be good. However, if it continues to bounce, and prints a V-shaped low...it could mean that the altcoin market just experienced the bear trap of the century. People who watch this market closely will be paying attention to this one. As I've mentioned in recent posts, the market seems very on a precipice right now...but those are often the best times to trade.
In terms of trading, it would probably be safer to buy if the major uptrend is reclaimed (blue). A failure to get back above it would be a bad sign. The fact that TRX got back above it before its last pump after breaking down below it means that it's fully capable of doing so again. This would mean a "safer" entry would be in the low to mid 500's.
Targets could actually take out the previous high, since Bitcoin is looking more bullish. That means 1000 and even 1300 are in the cards, but of course we first need to get above the 700-860 zone.
Here are a few stats to show why altcoins are still looking okay. Not great, but okay. All these retraces are healthy for market growth, in my opinion.
LTC went $22 to $100 and has retraced to $68
NEO went $5.70 to nearly $14 and has retraced to $9.50
XLM went $0.07 to almost $0.14 and retraced to $.10
ETH went $80 to $180, and has held above $160 (MAJOR previous resistance)
ONT went from $0.40 to 1.50ish and has held above $1.
Looking at these stats, there's no reason to assume (yet) that the market is in for a major dump. Just presenting these figures for future reference, because I find this very interesting. The fact that many alts have hit very low prices against Bitcoin, yet maintained decent values in USD tells me that the market might also be testing to see how decoupled they can get. This could also work in their favor, rather than their demise.
TRX analysis where I called the cycle well in advance (though it didn't go as high as I outlined in the chart originally, but I revised that prediction):
TRX chart where I called the breakout:
TRX chart where I called the top:
TRX chart where I called the possible retrace to 430:
This is not financial advice! Just an observation I've made, and wanted to post this for future reference.
In my last TRX post, I gave possible support areas, and I also explained why the correction would likely be a long one. I was comparing the RSI from the last correctional period. In my very first TRX analysis, where I predicted the major run up from its bottom in the low 300 sat area, the breakout point was around 430 sats. This was a very important psychological area. Had one gone long there, it would have generated 100% profits fairly quickly in Bitcoin value. I also called the top once it made it to the 800 sat area. 430 was the lowest point I was looking at for a possible re-entry for the long term (might continue to stick with NEO for now, but that's my decision. I just prefer the NEO/ONT ecosystem. TRX could outperform it based on hype alone).
TRX went slightly below 430 just recently, but it has since been bought back up above that support on increasing volume. This is a bullish signal. People's stop losses were hit below 430, simple as that. I would pay attention to how TRX behaves over the next few days, as it actually led the previous alt cycle (many forget this, but it actually pumped before Litecoin). I posted an IOTABTC chart recently to track a possible beginning of an altcoin cycle, but this one may be an even better bellwether. If TRX slides back below 430, that probably won't be good. However, if it continues to bounce, and prints a V-shaped low...it could mean that the altcoin market just experienced the bear trap of the century. People who watch this market closely will be paying attention to this one. As I've mentioned in recent posts, the market seems very on a precipice right now...but those are often the best times to trade.
In terms of trading, it would probably be safer to buy if the major uptrend is reclaimed (blue). A failure to get back above it would be a bad sign. The fact that TRX got back above it before its last pump after breaking down below it means that it's fully capable of doing so again. This would mean a "safer" entry would be in the low to mid 500's.
Targets could actually take out the previous high, since Bitcoin is looking more bullish. That means 1000 and even 1300 are in the cards, but of course we first need to get above the 700-860 zone.
Here are a few stats to show why altcoins are still looking okay. Not great, but okay. All these retraces are healthy for market growth, in my opinion.
LTC went $22 to $100 and has retraced to $68
NEO went $5.70 to nearly $14 and has retraced to $9.50
XLM went $0.07 to almost $0.14 and retraced to $.10
ETH went $80 to $180, and has held above $160 (MAJOR previous resistance)
ONT went from $0.40 to 1.50ish and has held above $1.
Looking at these stats, there's no reason to assume (yet) that the market is in for a major dump. Just presenting these figures for future reference, because I find this very interesting. The fact that many alts have hit very low prices against Bitcoin, yet maintained decent values in USD tells me that the market might also be testing to see how decoupled they can get. This could also work in their favor, rather than their demise.
TRX analysis where I called the cycle well in advance (though it didn't go as high as I outlined in the chart originally, but I revised that prediction):
TRX chart where I called the breakout:
TRX chart where I called the top:
TRX chart where I called the possible retrace to 430:
This is not financial advice! Just an observation I've made, and wanted to post this for future reference.
注释
As you can see by the above chart, if TRX can't hold above 400, the 360-370 area is the next support, and we have a bit of a rising trendline there (in green). It's possible TRX heads down there for a longer bottoming period as well. Just keeping an eye on it.注释
TRX has still held above 430, and IOTA is showing some buying strength here. Ideally, I'd like to see a bit of an altcoin cycle beginning here. Even coins like DENT are bouncing on decent volume, which could also be an early indicator.注释
The altcoin market cap bounced right off the long term trendline the other day, but we're scarily close to it: 注释
Zoomed out you can see how important this trendline is, and why I've been saying over and over again the last couple of weeks that altcoins need to show some signs of strength ASAP. 注释
Just a small, but necessary update to this chart. I've noticed that investors are starting to get concerned about TRX. Although technically speaking the chart still looks bullish...if some bad news does come out, TRX could in theory break down and negate this bullish idea. One of the reasons I chose NEO for that slot in my portfolio over TRX is actually because I was a little sketched out by the TRX ecosystem, and found the NEO/ONT experience to be miles better. I guess we'll see if the FUD can be cleared. It's possible these are just investors looking to blame someone for the price decrease.注释
Looks like TRX is continuing to head lower for now. We could find support at the green uptrend (around 370-380 right now). I would also pay attention to investor and community sentiment. 注释
Just a small update. TRX has now broken below its long term support (green) so the bullish scenario is currently invalidated, unless it gets back above soon, and with a lot of momentum. Unfortunately, the support below here is anyone’s guess, so whenever the market makers feel like there’s been enough pain.
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