Based on the severity of this pull back It seems like the breakout for TRX has failed, and based on the macro environment the probabilities are mounting we may briefly see new lows this year before pushing towards all time highs. This seems to be coinciding with a crash in the US banking system, which will eventually lead to a fast response by the Fed to turn the printers back on to save the banks and prop up asset prices. At first TRX could get a quick drop to 3.3 cents as asset prices depress almost across the board. Following the inevitable Fed intervention, TRX and most cryptos should push towards new all time highs. At a minimum TRX should go to over 60 cents in the following year as the money printers get turned back on again.
The very recent collapse of multiple banks in the US could lead to system wide contagion in the US banking system that will only be stopped by massive intervention and money printing by the Fed. A systemic bank run could lead to a dollar liquidity crisis and temporary demand spike for dollars as depositors can no longer get their dollars out of banks and will need to sell off other assets to pay their bills, this selling will continue up until the central bank is able to effectively deal with the situation and extinguish the fire by throwing freshly printed money on it.
The Fed typically keeps tightening until they 'break something,' and things are definitely starting to break now.
The very recent collapse of multiple banks in the US could lead to system wide contagion in the US banking system that will only be stopped by massive intervention and money printing by the Fed. A systemic bank run could lead to a dollar liquidity crisis and temporary demand spike for dollars as depositors can no longer get their dollars out of banks and will need to sell off other assets to pay their bills, this selling will continue up until the central bank is able to effectively deal with the situation and extinguish the fire by throwing freshly printed money on it.
The Fed typically keeps tightening until they 'break something,' and things are definitely starting to break now.
交易结束：到达止损
交易开始:
With the SEC attacking TRX and Justin Sun, it seems as though TRX could underperform for some time, similar to how XRP underperformed after they were attacked by regulators.
A move to 3.3 cents is still in the cards here. Possibly a positive outcome for the Ripple v SEC case could lead to needed regulatory clarity that allows TRX to move back into a state of overperforming, despite the open SEC case. Opening of exchanges in Hong Kong could also lead to TRX over performing as well, but this likely isn't going to happen until the 2nd half of the year.
A move to 3.3 cents is still in the cards here. Possibly a positive outcome for the Ripple v SEC case could lead to needed regulatory clarity that allows TRX to move back into a state of overperforming, despite the open SEC case. Opening of exchanges in Hong Kong could also lead to TRX over performing as well, but this likely isn't going to happen until the 2nd half of the year.
评论:
While a symmetrical is still technically possible, which would imply a fast wave down and then a bull market right after, like this old chart from March 11th shows. What is more likely based on the rule of reverse logic, and because of the lack of price similarity that would be expected in a symmetrical, it is most likely that we have formed into an x-wave, and are only about half way through with this bear market.
