On the risk outlook, US considering limiting investments in Chinese companies implies that protectionism is spreading beyond trade. The contractionary effect protectionism has on globalisation will continue to weigh heavy on cyclicals relative to defensively positioned portfolios.
I am tracking for meaningful dollar devaluation starting in Q4, however Xi is three steps ahead and the CNY devaluation is already in full swing which will imply we will see another escalation in the trade war as China refuse to bend the knee. This simmering volcano is ready to erupt again. A race to the bottom with Xi running laps around Trump.
Good luck all those in USDCNY
I am tracking for meaningful dollar devaluation starting in Q4, however Xi is three steps ahead and the CNY devaluation is already in full swing which will imply we will see another escalation in the trade war as China refuse to bend the knee. This simmering volcano is ready to erupt again. A race to the bottom with Xi running laps around Trump.
Good luck all those in USDCNY
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