US Dollar Index Macro View 23/12 - Merry Christmas

2018年12月23日

There is no surprise that Federal Reserve rate hike, US Dollar Index rallied after. Investor were looking for Fed Chair Powell dovish tone but his comments came out optimistic. The dollar rose despite the fact that 10-year Treasury yields dropped. Small adjustment in the statement on lowered growth and inflation forecast, these changes were not significant to push the dollar lower. Fed Chair Powell’s comments that he made it clear that nothing is predetermined and everything is data dependent but he also said the sharp decline in US equities and tightening of financial market conditions has not fundamentally altered their outlook. The Fed still plan to raise interest rates in 2019 and most policy makers expect the economy to grow. However, if the bond market continues to fall, it will be difficult for the dollar to sustain its strength.

The US Dollar Index chart did not change last week ranging between 12330 & 12260 levels. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12200 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break strongly above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12260 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.

Upcoming week will be a quiet trading week ahead.

ForexBriefcase takes this opportunity to wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas.

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