US Dollar Index Macro View 01/12 - G20 meeting outcome?

2018年12月1日

The US Dollar fell after Fed chair Jerome Powell surprised the market by saying that interest rates are “just below” neutral levels. He believes economy will continue growth with low unemployment and inflation around 2%, but he thinks moving too quickly could risk shortening the US expansion. Personal income and spending grew more than expected but jobless claims increased and pending home sales fell sharply. FOMC minutes did not help the dollar even though Fed officials saw the need for another rate hike. Even though there is a pickup in spending, the momentum in the economy is slowing. We might see if US delay additional tariffs with China in the G20 meeting until further talks, we could see a rally in equities and currencies. Upcoming data on the calendar that could market moving are Fed Chair Powell testifies and the non-farm payroll.

The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12300 & 12225 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12200 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.

ForexBriefcase deepest condolences to former US President George W. Bush. RIP.

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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

2018年12月4日

注释

This week’s event on the USDOLLARS will determine the outcome of US President Trump and Chinese President Xi, Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress and the non-farm payrolls report. President Trump has agreed to delay tariffs until further talks. Fed fund futures show one full rate hike for 2019 compared to the Fed’s forecast for 3 hikes next year. The NFP report will confirm if there is a slowdown in the economy, good data last week are won’t have a lasting impact on the greenback.

Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.