Another tough week for all Emerging Market Currencies, with the South African Rand again being just a little small fish in a big pond.
#BRICS currency/USD movements for this week:
Brazil -1.9%
Russia -3.9%
India -0.9%
China +0.5%
South Africa -4.2%
Euro/USD +1.7%
Technically, the Rand ( ZAR ) broke a very strong and dangerous resistance level at R15.50, which definitely will leave me worried if I was running a short-term long position on the Rand. The recent weakness however was very much in-line with other BRICS currencies.
Still trading above all four the 8-, 21-, 50- and 200day moving averages ( EMA ), with all EMA’s pointing upward. This is a clear indication that the trend is still very much against the “health” of the Rand.
Should weakness continue, the ZAR could very much test R15.85, levels last seen in 2016.
The ZAR finds itself at EXTREME OVERSOLD levels according to its 14-day RSI .
I would however wait for the ZAR to break back below R15.50 before I would consider any short-term long (short the USDZAR) position on the ZAR.
Should the ZAR however break below R15.50, could see the ZAR find support firstly at the 8-day EMA (R15.29) and then the 21-day EMA’s (R15.05). R14.82 is quite a strong support-level with a break and close below these levels most probably placing us back at R14.50 – R14.60 levels. Should we break below R14.50, could see the ZAR seek support at R14.15.
I still maintain my longer-term (positive) stance on the Rand, with a medium-term target of R13.85. I would however caution any positions prior to a confirmation-break below R15.05 and will remain Neutral for now. Most likely trading band this week are being between R15.05 and R15.85.
#BRICS currency/USD movements for this week:
Brazil -1.9%
Russia -3.9%
India -0.9%
China +0.5%
South Africa -4.2%
Euro/USD +1.7%
Technically, the Rand ( ZAR ) broke a very strong and dangerous resistance level at R15.50, which definitely will leave me worried if I was running a short-term long position on the Rand. The recent weakness however was very much in-line with other BRICS currencies.
Still trading above all four the 8-, 21-, 50- and 200day moving averages ( EMA ), with all EMA’s pointing upward. This is a clear indication that the trend is still very much against the “health” of the Rand.
Should weakness continue, the ZAR could very much test R15.85, levels last seen in 2016.
The ZAR finds itself at EXTREME OVERSOLD levels according to its 14-day RSI .
I would however wait for the ZAR to break back below R15.50 before I would consider any short-term long (short the USDZAR) position on the ZAR.
Should the ZAR however break below R15.50, could see the ZAR find support firstly at the 8-day EMA (R15.29) and then the 21-day EMA’s (R15.05). R14.82 is quite a strong support-level with a break and close below these levels most probably placing us back at R14.50 – R14.60 levels. Should we break below R14.50, could see the ZAR seek support at R14.15.
I still maintain my longer-term (positive) stance on the Rand, with a medium-term target of R13.85. I would however caution any positions prior to a confirmation-break below R15.05 and will remain Neutral for now. Most likely trading band this week are being between R15.05 and R15.85.