Tough week for all Emerging Market Currencies again, with the South African Rand definitely joining the pity-party. With a big week ahead for all South Africans (National Budget Speech on Wednesday 26 February), it would only take the bravest to call the Rand going stronger this coming week.
#BRICS currency/USD movements for this week:
Brazil -2.1%
Russia -0.9%
India -0.5%
China -0.6%
South Africa -0.6%
Euro/USD +0.1%
Technically, the Rand ( ZAR ) moved back and forth the R15/USD level, with no definitive breaks yet.
Still trading above all four the 8-, 21-, 50- and 200day moving averages ( EMA ), with all EMA’s pointing upward. This is a clear indication that the trend is still very much against the “health” of the Rand.
Should weakness continue, the ZAR could very much test R15.50 soon. This would be very negative technically and could very much see us test the weak levels of end 2015.
The ZAR finds itself close to EXTREME OVERSOLD levels according to its 14-day RSI .
Should the ZAR however break below R14.90, could see the ZAR find support at both the 21-day EMA’s (R14.85). R14.70 is quite a strong support-level with a break and close below these levels most probably placing us back at R14.50. Should we break below R14.50, could see the ZAR seek support at R14.15.
I still maintain my longer-term (positive) stance on the Rand, with a medium-term target of R13.85. With the National Budget Speech expected on Wednesday, I would however caution any positions prior to the 26th of February and will remain Neutral for now. Most likely trading band this week are being between R14.70 and R15.50.
#BRICS currency/USD movements for this week:
Brazil -2.1%
Russia -0.9%
India -0.5%
China -0.6%
South Africa -0.6%
Euro/USD +0.1%
Technically, the Rand ( ZAR ) moved back and forth the R15/USD level, with no definitive breaks yet.
Still trading above all four the 8-, 21-, 50- and 200day moving averages ( EMA ), with all EMA’s pointing upward. This is a clear indication that the trend is still very much against the “health” of the Rand.
Should weakness continue, the ZAR could very much test R15.50 soon. This would be very negative technically and could very much see us test the weak levels of end 2015.
The ZAR finds itself close to EXTREME OVERSOLD levels according to its 14-day RSI .
Should the ZAR however break below R14.90, could see the ZAR find support at both the 21-day EMA’s (R14.85). R14.70 is quite a strong support-level with a break and close below these levels most probably placing us back at R14.50. Should we break below R14.50, could see the ZAR seek support at R14.15.
I still maintain my longer-term (positive) stance on the Rand, with a medium-term target of R13.85. With the National Budget Speech expected on Wednesday, I would however caution any positions prior to the 26th of February and will remain Neutral for now. Most likely trading band this week are being between R14.70 and R15.50.